Analysis: KSS PLNT AMZN

After you receive this Alert, we will be buying 100 shares of Kohl's (KSS) at roughly $67.23. Following the trade, KSS (900 shares) will represent 2.21% of the portfolio.

Thanks to our profit-taking efforts from earlier Monday (see our Alert here for more information), we have built up a large war chest of capital that we can opportunistically deploy at favorable prices.

In previous Alerts (such as here) we guided for "around $67" as the price point to where we would upgrade Kohl's back to a One. A flat $67 price represents a 4.00% dividend yield and puts the forward multiple at roughly 11.6x, a value too cheap relative to the amount of initiatives in place and management's diligent efforts on the balance sheet. With shares down about 4% at the time this was written, the stock has now approached our "buy-zone." Therefore, we will nibble on shares this afternoon and upgrade our rating back to a ONE.

Today's sharp decline can be attributed to two reasons. First, oil spiked higher when the United States announced its plan to end waivers to country's that import oil from Iran. The oil headwind makes sense. When oil prices rise and gasoline prices increase, the amount of discretionary income available to the consumer will decrease, meaning less available dollars to spend on retail goods. Although this is important to consider and factor in, it might be insignificant at the moment because OPEC can always end their current output cut and make up the lost supply.

The other news which we believe is making up a larger portion of today's move was commentary from JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss. Now you might remember in our Alert from last week, we discussed how Boss was a champion of Kohl's and their management team. This still holds true today. However, buried within Boss' bullish discussion of how management is "re-positioning KSS to take 'market share in the middle'" thanks to all their category improvements (active, footwear, and more) and traffic-driving partnerships (Amazon (AMZN) , Planet Fitness (PLNT) , and more) - the heart of the Kohl's story - was a downward revision to first quarter same store sales and earnings per share estimates which Boss now has a -1.0% (consensus flat) and $0.60 (consensus $0.69), respectively, due to the impact of unfavorable weather in the Midwest.

Although the potential of these weak numbers does put some risk in the next print, we are reminded of how the stock acted last quarter, positively reacting to the expansion of the Amazon partnership which more than offset management's soft first quarter guide. When the company reports later this earnings season, we think investors will place more weight in the store concepts, partnerships, etc., compared to weather-related softness that is transitory in nature