Analysis: NUE AMZN WMT

In today's Daily Rundown, Jim Cramer discusses the Larry Williams "Off the Charts" segment from last night, Nucor (NUE) , Amazon (AMZN) , Walmart (WMT) , and more!

JEFF MARKS: Good morning, everyone. Happy Tuesday. I'm Jeff Marks, senior portfolio analyst at Action Alerts Plus, standing on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with Jim Cramer.

Jim, we spent a lot of time talking about the Fed yesterday. So the first thing I want to hit on today is that Off the Charts segment you had with Larry Williams. I know a lot of club members, they closely follow Larry because he has just been so on point.

So he's saying that there might be a little bit of a swoon coming soon.

JIM CRAMER: With Larry, look, let's play our cards here. Larry is the most senior technician actually of our time. And what he is is not necessarily a chartist. What he is is an historian.

And he looked at 22 out of 22 times the end of June has proven to be bad. And you want to get out and then get back in, because there's a July 4 rally. And I just think that 22 out of 22, that's pretty authoritative.

Now, there was one year where it wasn't as good, which you had 2011. Because that's exactly when you had some issues involving the debt crisis and the downgrade. But I just felt that it was warranted caution. Or, in our case, because we have our club call Thursday, say, you know what? We're going to let it come down a little. Like when we talked about how we don't want to battle Nucor, let Nucor come down a little, and play off of Larry Williams to be able to go long, not go short. Because we obviously don't short. It's a charitable trust.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, you mentioned the club call Thursday. And Larry Williams could probably do a whole seasonal piece on what the market tends to trade, how it usually tends to sell down on our club calls. So that's one thing.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, that's true. There's an indicator. It's funny, cause my friend and colleague David Faber's not in. And we typically get the biggest deal in the world when he's not in.

I will point out that the rollover of JPMorgan may be part of what Larry Williams somehow has been able to divine, because that rollover says that numbers are too high. And you could have a series of number cuts.

Now, we, fortunately, are not involved with anything other than a special situation, which is Wells Fargo. And that's a big buyback. But I would tell you, one of the things that we were concerned about when we sold our financials was that you do have CCAR coming up. And it's going to be positive for the banks.

But we didn't necessarily think that Jamie Dimon was going to cut numbers in a very public forum. And that was kind of-- as he said, look, I know you're disappointed, sorry. Jamie's great, but I'm so glad we sold it. Oh, I'm so glad we sold it.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, those were good sales. JPMorgan's actually getting right back to where we actually sold it. And it's been a lot of time since.

JIM CRAMER: We bought better stocks with the money. And it's a one, two punch. You want to get out with a gain, like we did. And then you want to go buy a better one.

This is, again, my you sell the Matisse to buy the Warhol. You can't keep putting in stocks. I think that we still have one stock too many. I'm debating-- and I don't want to play my hand yet, because I want to play it on the call-- debating selling something that we've been talking about.

I feel strongly that it's very hard for us to do as great a job when we start getting to the middle 30s, right? I mean, to cover all these companies.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, exactly. That's why before we add on a new position, we like to take one off, just because it's a lot of work. And you get stretched. And all of a sudden, you own all of the different-- if you keep adding positions after positions, you just own the entire market. And really we want to avoid some of the areas that aren't doing quite well.

JIM CRAMER: Right, I do think that one of the things we have to watch is being very gentle buying Nucor. Because Cleveland Cliffs reported a much better than expected preannouncement, and the stock went down. So Nucor is doing very, very well. But obviously Cleveland Cliffs is doing very, very well, and the stock went down.

So we just have to be-- we don't want to do willy nilly on Nucor. You can only battle so many at a time. And I think one of the things that we're-- remember, it's a teaching product. You can always have a battle on your hands. But you could always just say, you know what? I don't want that battle. I'm going to keep the position small and wait till it goes lower. And that's our strategy with Nucor.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, and what's interesting with Nucor is that this week, over the next couple days, they're going to be expected to preannounce second quarter earnings similar to Cleveland Cliffs. So if we're seeing Cleveland Cliffs not go up on good news, maybe we should hold to that $100 level that we talked about on Nucor.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah. Yes, $100 level, and especially cause of what Larry Williams talked about. And again, just to verify who Larry is, he's written some great books. You know, the Williams percentage R. A lot of what we know about on balance, a lot of what we know about RSI, I mean, Larry's taught us everything. And the fact that I've got this relationship with Larry is treasured.

He picked Amazon last week as the stock went up 200 points. So he obviously has the hottest hand. So let's pay attention.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, and just zeroing in a little bit more on Amazon, JPMorgan out with a big piece today. They're talking about how Amazon should surpass Walmart as the largest retailer in the US. That's all about e-commerce, e-commerce gaining penetration since COVID-19. And Amazon's clearly the dominant player there.

It's great for Amazon, but how do you think-- we also own Walmart too. So that's something to think about as well.

JIM CRAMER: I am convinced-- You're seeing the Home Depots of the world come down here. Now, maybe they're too housing oriented, because people are starting to think that housing has gotten too hot.

JEFF MARKS: And lumber prices have been falling.

JIM CRAMER: Right, so therefore-- and remember, they make 10 basis points on like lumber. So if it goes to 1,500, they make a lot more money than when it's at 500 or 200. But what I would point out is if Lowe's and Home Depot lose their cachet, it's going to be Costco and Walmart that get those spare dollars, to some degree Target already.

So I like our position with Walmart. I think it's got a couple down and many up.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, and it's interesting too, because Walmart, it was trading at $145 before they essentially took down numbers for the full year. But then they raised guidance with that last report. Yet the stock can't get back there.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, guys, I thought Walmart had a fine quarter. I think Walmart's doing very, very well. I think that there are a lot of people don't understand what they did in India.

And the most important thing is ever since Marc Lore left, the guy they bought with, they've not been able to get more-- I mean, people want to see their Plus grow like 10 million, 20 million. It's not happening.

So that's the big worry. And if they ended up doing their e-commerce better-- like let's say they saw a definitive uptick in e-commerce, then the stock's at $150. So we've got to stay the course there. We have to.

JEFF MARKS: All right, Jim, before we go, Boeing in the headlines today. They settled a 17 year trade dispute with Airbus. Do you think this is a market moving headline? Or what do you think?

JIM CRAMER: I continue to say that Boeing is going to have a weak quarter. We don't own it for the quarter. If we didn't own it and we were waiting to own it, a new member of the club, I'd say wait. Wait until when they report, because it's just not a strong quarter.

And that's fine. I mean, we don't trade for the quarter. We trade for the big one.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, and we trade for that comeback in travel.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, it's a big investment for us. It's a long term big investment. Comeback in travel, certification with China. I know we're all being very tough on China. It's China's move to be less tough.

JEFF MARKS: All right, that's the show today. I'm Jeff Marks. We'll see you tomorrow.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long NUE, AMZN and WMT.