In today's Daily Rundown, Jim Cramer discusses the markets, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) , Union Pacific (UNP) , Boeing (BA) , Microsoft (MSFT) , Apple (AAPL) , Cisco (CSCO) , and more!
JEFF MARKS: Welcome to the Daily Rundown. I'm Jeff Marks, standing here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with Jim Cramer. Jim, you were just telling me how this is a soggy market and how, previously, patience hasn't rewarded everyone. Because the market is just up so much since its March 2020 lows. But right here, it might pay to sit on your hands.
JIM CRAMER: You know Jeff, I rely on the work of Larry Williams. Now when I say that, he's a technician. But he really is looking and detecting patterns. And we've had a series of positive patterns that Larry has discerned. I don't want to be hard and fast, but we are about to be in a period that has historically been treacherous for 20 years. And you're actually-- it's like if you sell on this date and buy on that date, you actually made a lot of money.
And I just am amazed at the blowback I'm getting, particularly from younger investors who believe that I've become this uber bear. And what I am saying is we're going to get some good prices here, and so keep some cash. Now that's very different, but it's a nuanced view. What I find, Jeff, that is so disappointing about so many of the newer investors is they're very binary. They think, listen, it's either going to go down a lot or go up a lot.
And what I'm saying is it can tread water to go down a little over time. And at a certain point, you're going to be able to say, you know what, that stock which didn't interest me at-- American Express -- let's pick one that's doing well. At 162, it doesn't interest me at 150, wow, I like it. Disney at 183, no, at 173, yes. Now there are a lot of people out there who say, well, what is the difference? And when I hear that, that's immature logic, meaning that you just haven't spent enough time in stocks to find out that a lot of what matters is your basis, where you started.
In the same way that if you look at the cost of mutual funds, like if you add that percentage, it does matter. There's these little things that do matter. And if you are just sitting there saying, you know what, Jim is being too cherry. He is waiting too long. He's going to miss the bottom, then fine.
That's another thing that I have after 40 years. I can say, you know what, I don't need to make a move if I don't want to. I am not saying you've got to stay in your chains. I am saying that I'd like the odds to be more in my favor.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah. When it's something that's historically bad for 20 years, it's really tough to go against that.
JIM CRAMER: If you wait-- like 17 days from now, I'll be saying, uh on, I feel pressure. But can I wait for the 17 days? That's not that long a time.
JEFF MARKS: Right. And I guess to your point also as well, just with starting new positions, we always start off with about maybe an 1/8 of a position or quarter of a position to give it some room. Let's see if the stock falls below our basis. We'll add more. We're adding because we do like the longer term. We have a longer term view, which I know you were joking about earlier about Boeing.
JIM CRAMER: But think about Union Pacific. Yesterday we went back and forth and I said, OK, UPS. I actually went Friday UPS, Union Pacific, what do we do? And we all agreed that we can buy small Union Pacific, but then we have to wait till it's meaningful. And now its 203-- still not meaningful. It's got to go down below that, even though it's been horrendous.
And I say that because not everything is Nucor. It could be Wynn. Now, Wynn happens to be the government stepping in and really just obliterating us, for heaven's sake. It's now a different stock. But let's use Boeing. Like David Faber would, say why aren't you selling Boeing? Because I had said, listen, near-term I'm not buying the long argument, but long-term I am. Well, Boeing was up $1. Now it's down $2.
Now, you may say, Oh, that's ridiculous. But let me tell you something. If you bought Boeing at the opening, if I had said, listen, I want to buy Boeing at 114, here's what you'd be saying to me on Twitter. You're an idiot, Jim. Now it's down to 212.
And I'm not saying I want to react to the people who are making vicious comments. I am saying, look, if I get Boeing at 206 that's better than Boeing at 212. But there's subtlety to this business, and the subtlety is being lost by a lot of the younger investors.
JEFF MARKS: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but also what you're saying, too, if a stock is going down because of a transient issue-- whether it be port congestion, intermodal a little weak or the chip shortage in auto, which is plaguing Union Pacific or in the case of Boeing-- look. They're saying that domestic air travel is going to return to 2019 levels in 2022, international 2024. So transient issues you're willing to buy as it comes down. But if something's more on the structural side, maybe that turns into a look to sell.
JIM CRAMER: A secular decline, a notion that we've had a cyclical peak, a belief that there are going to be government controls over prices for drugs, the idea that Chinese are going to get involved in gaming, these are all one off. But taken together, they're bad. And we are in it taken-together mood. I just feel that I don't want people to get blindsided and their first buy to be wrong.
JEFF MARKS: All right, Jim. You mentioned Wynn earlier. Shares are taking a hit on concerns over-regulation. Look in Macau. And this stock has been step forward, step back, step forward, step back for many, many months now. So just how do you approach this new regulatory concern? Stocks down around 9% last time I checked.
JIM CRAMER: This is one where we may, if it bounces, have to cut and run. And I say that because I had felt that Wynn was a way to play a COVID rebound in the most important company for trading, which is China, and also for travel in the United States. I did not anticipate that there would be a crackdown in gaming by the Chinese government. So you can say, well, Jim why didn't you know that? You didn't know the Didi was cracked down, either.
Well, I mean, we make some mistakes. It's just the difference is that, unlike Cathie Wood, we're going to say, hey, listen, we made some mistakes. Now, I can easily say, listen, let's just worry about it long term. But if I think that there's a structural change, then I've got to take action.
Jeff, we can't just sit back and say, you know what, it really doesn't matter If you own Wynn for three years. I'm not in at three. I like a six-to-nine-month view. We're trying to help you learn. It is not a learning experience to take a beating.
It's a learning experience to be able to be a little bit more nimble-- not hedge fund nimble. But if something changed, we may have to change. And I don't want to. I don't ever want to admit that I'm wrong. Nobody does. But I also didn't see the Chinese communists coming down on Macau.
JEFF MARKS: And to your point, Jim, China really hasn't cracked down on foreign companies that employ a lot of locals, whether it be Starbucks or Apple. So this threat of regulation to Wynn should come as a surprise, because gaming is, I want to say, half of GDP in Macau. I believe that number. So it's obviously such a critical industry for that region.
JIM CRAMER: You know, they're a gigantic employer. If you go back to the days when Steve Wynn ran Wynn, he would say periodically the Chinese government would get involved. But in the end, they want the revenues. In the end, gamblers will gamble. In the end, it's a vice that they accepted.
Well, suddenly we've got a situation where maybe they're not accepting vice, and that's new. Look, I didn't anticipate it. I just didn't anticipate it. And if every stock we bought went up, do you think we'd need this product? I'm sorry. I'll just go and quit my job, go invest, and go buy 10% of the Eagles.
JEFF MARKS: All right. Let's switch it up to a long term compounder-- Microsoft. Morgan Stanley increases its price target to 331 this morning. They say September is historically the month where they increase the dividend. They're looking for a 10% raise this week.
JIM CRAMER: I think that Microsoft piece had nothing in it. We all know they're going to do that. I think the people felt like it's important to try to show the Microsoft flag in the same way that I think the piece about Amazon. There's nothing in these pieces.
One of the reasons why I am so discouraged is that I am not seeing reasons to buy. I am seeing ginned-up reasons to buy. Yeah. Microsoft dividend? I mean, really, is that what you recommend a stock on? I mean, come on. That's just not enough of a reason to hang your hat.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah, especially when the stock currently yields, I want to say, about 0.8%. So it's not like-- Look, a dividend is always nice to have. It's always great to have that year after year increases.
JIM CRAMER: Look. Crown Castle. Yesterday I looked at it. I said we should just dump it. We have a big gain. Then I looked. It's 28%. That's not bad.
JEFF MARKS: And they'll raise it in October, I believe is when they do it.
JIM CRAMER: Kind of interesting situation. This is not an interesting situation for dividend. And it's not showing anything other than the fact that they have some pricing power. So I need more to hang my hat on than I'm being given.
Here's a good example. So I was looking at American Express. Boy, they had some really positive comments about September so far. And I figure, OK, that'll be up 2, 3 points. I wish we had American Express. And it's down. It's down.
I mean, what more do people want? So I think people want too much. There are other people who need more to hang their hat on. And I need more to hang my hat on.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah. I guess it's, back to your point, a little bit of a sagging market right now. Let prices come in.
JIM CRAMER: But let's just talk about the idea that that's OK. There are so many people who have bought since they got in in March of 2020. And they know one thing, which is that when you buy a stock, it goes higher. Well, that's not always the case, and we're discovering that.
JEFF MARKS: All right. Jim, real quick before we go for today, a couple of events we should talk about-- the Apple iPhone 13 event. We're expected to hear more news about the new phone, airpods, the watch.
JIM CRAMER: Remember there's a price war among T-Mobile and Verizon and AT&T, and the way to be able to get customers is to give them an iPhone. So that's what matters there. Cisco, we got orders. I think they're going to be very good. I think that Cisco's already down.
See, if stock is already down, that intrigues me. That's interesting to me. Cisco got hit last week on a downgrade. I thought the downgrade was fatuous. But I also recognize that even if Cisco says good things, maybe trades at 55, because we're in a weak moment.
And remember the notion of self-fulfilling. If everybody thinks the market's going to go down and a stock starts going down that's been up, then people say, uh oh, I'm on the wrong side of it. So the trigger pulling on the downside is more aggressive.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah. And JP Morgan, they did increase their price target on Cisco to $67. We'll lay out some of the expectations JP Morgan has just so everyone has an idea of what to expect numbers wise when the company has their investor day tomorrow. Jim, any last thoughts?
JIM CRAMER: Well, I just want people to understand that you don't need to be a bull or a bear. You can be a fence sitter. You need something to hang your hat on. You don't just wake up every day and say, what am I looking to buy? That is not the way you make money.
JEFF MARKS: All right. Let's leave it right there. I think that's a great point to leave the conversation on. And that's a show for today, everyone. We'll see you tomorrow.