JEFF MARKS: Good Monday morning, everyone. Welcome to the Daily Rundown. I'm Jeff Marks, standing on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with Jim Cramer. Jim, we're seeing a sell-off Monday. Pretty significant. You've been calling for September 17 after that is when the seasonally weak period starts to begin. What are you looking at today?
JIM CRAMER: Typically, if it weren't for that, I'd be saying "let's find some stocks." But I would be looking at stocks like PayPal, maybe Bristol at $58, which is going down in part because I think a lot of people just feel like that its combination for anti-cancer's not doing that well. It's got a lot of other things going for it. And it's been down for 13 straight days, and that's highly unusual for Bristol.
I will point out that those who are selling us off of China don't understand that-- the flip side, let's say China were going up. Would you be buying anything American because China is going up? Of course not. They won't let us participate. So now that it's going down, are we supposed to sell our banks? I mean, you can't have it both ways. You can't say, oh, China's roaring, but can't we buy our banks? No. So when China is going down, we can't say, oh, sell the banks. People are doing that.
I mean, look, we don't own JPMorgan. We do own Morgan Stanley, and we do own Wells Fargo. I would rather own those and buy those on a dip than almost anything other than some of our FinTech, which seems like to be doing where we should be.
JEFF MARKS: Let's just hit on why China is causing the market to go lower. Its Evergrande. It's the second largest property developer in the region. They are poised to default, potentially, on a bunch of bank loans. And then there's a fear that those defaults could spread into other countries, into other areas of the economy, specifically, US banking system. But you're saying we're not in China.
JIM CRAMER: No.
JEFF MARKS: So why would that be an issue?
JIM CRAMER: OK, so they have $300 billion in debt, of which they've got a couple of payments come due this week. September 23rd, they have a payment. Now, they have been paying-- they've been asking their workers to take pay and in buildings and apartments.
JEFF MARKS: It's almost like collateral. Here, whatever is there, take that. Yeah.
JIM CRAMER: This has been a terrible company for a long time. But, and this is what matters, people-- the nation's richest person ran. So what the party has been doing is going after the richest people, targeting them, and making it very clear that they don't have power. They strip them of their assets. And then they bail out those who are, frankly, shouldn't be hurt.
So I feel strongly that people have to recognize that the Chinese government is a command economy. And a command economy means that you can say, all right, look, we've wiped out this investing class. Now let's go help out others. It's not like our country, where you have a "too big to fail," this or that. This isn't too big to fail, but what happens is that the people who are owed, the Chinese government will bail out. And that's who they are. And I don't know why people think that they're like us. They're not!
JEFF MARKS: I think this topic, this conversation about China, it's a good way to segue into Wynn Resorts. So price target lower today at Morgan Stanley.
JIM CRAMER: Yeah.
JEFF MARKS: $113, which they which still shows over 35% upside from the current price. And they say if there is a Macau casino to bet on, it's going to be Wynn over Las Vegas Sands. So, look, we were talking earlier, maybe $80 might be the price level to make a stand, make that next buy.
JIM CRAMER: I want to talk about this, obviously, on a Thursday call. We did Nucor. Nucor, they subsequently went to $120. I mean, we're not traders. The actual replacement value of Wynn, the entire Wynn, is about $13 billion. That's how much they spent. If you closed Wynn in Macau, soon, you'd be getting to what the valuation is for this.
Now, that's crazy because they're not closing it. And as a matter of fact, when I speak to the company, the company kind of saw this coming. Now, did the company see the general collapse of China, so to speak? No. But they did expect that there would be a crackdown. They did expect that there-- remember, the stock started falling ahead of when we started buying. $120 goes to $80 is a very big decline. And I am convinced that they have this more under control than people realize.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah, you mentioned $80, big decline. The stock is re-approaching levels where it was almost peak-COVID, so that kind of gives you a sense of how much fear is in the stock right now.
JIM CRAMER: Right. And, yes, that's the right word. There's a lot of fear in the market. And the fear is genuinely involved with any company that has China exposure, whatsoever. And I think that it's irrational at this point.
JEFF MARKS: Let's just go back to the market. So again, big sell off today. Now, the oscillator that you closely follow is at negative 3.46 as of Friday. Still not oversold territory. So you're thinking here it still might be a little bit too early to buy?
JIM CRAMER: Yes. I mean, we have discovered in sell-offs is that until it's minus five and you clear the seasonal hurdle, you can't buy. I think we'll be up to minus five. The seasonal hurdle, which I said was going to start the 17th. People anticipated that, but the seasonal hurdle is probably going to be pushed up four days, which would typically mean that you should be thinking about October 10, if you want to be precise. Precise was September 17. October 10 before you have real stability here. And that's a lot.
JEFF MARKS: So let's break this down real quick. You were looking at the second week of October as a potential buy point, but because people did all that selling in anticipation of September 17, we might see that target pull forward.
JIM CRAMER: Look, there's a lot of stories where there's a chink. I mean, so let's take AbbVie. Oh, well, that yields X. We should buy that. It's a very inexpensive stock. Yes, but then they blew one of their key drugs. Now, we don't know whether it's really blown or not.
Let's take one I never talk about, Pfizer. OK, Pfizer is at $49. It's coming all the way back. All right. Pfizer is a winner. They're going to have a good year next year. Lilly, which we knew has an Alzheimer's formulation, they're going to have a good year. So what I'm saying, there are companies, cyclical companies that I don't trust, but I trust these other companies.
JEFF MARKS: OK. And what about Nucor? So obviously, stock taking a hit today on news that they're
opening up a new sheet mill. This follows news of another competitor opening up.
JIM CRAMER: US steel, yeah.
JEFF MARKS: And we're talking 2023, 2024 is when these will be operational.
JIM CRAMER: Look, I mean, that should not cause you to cut in half the estimates for next year, which is what people are doing. We don't have imports being dumped. The demand is so high. Now, it is true that when you sell the steel companies is when they have built all sorts of grades of factories, but that's not even in the cards yet. So you have to deal with the volatility and recognize that Nucor is going to go down on every new plant that's mentioned, and then go up again.
JEFF MARKS: OK, and then let's talk travel. So the US is poised to loosen travel restrictions to the European Union and the UK. Proof of vaccination, of course. This could be positive for MasterCard because we've been waiting for that recovery in cross-border volumes.
JIM CRAMER: Yeah. This is a good example of what happens in terms of the exhaustion of the market. MasterCard is the one you want to watch. There is definitive good news, OK? They should probably upgrade it tomorrow or say good things about it. So you want to get ahead of that because then, at least, you have some sort of backstop.
JEFF MARKS: All right. Any final thoughts as before we wrap up the show for the trading day?
JIM CRAMER: Yeah, I do feel like when I see a Linde down 7, an Estee Lauder down 8, should we have sold these? And I think the answer is that that's-- hindsight's 20/20. You might have wanted to sell them and scalp them, and we did make sales, but to get rid of them is to run the risk that you have a stock that goes up 200 points and you don't get back in. And that's why I think that even though a Linde or a when we get a Wynn down a lot, or we see some other stocks, like Estee Lauder, down a lot. We can't trade them like that. We can't just out and in, and in and out. I like them.
JEFF MARKS: Yeah, so the lesson there might be if it's a good multiyear story, historically a compounder, Estee Lauder, Linde.
JIM CRAMER: Cisco, by the way.
JEFF MARKS: Cisco as well.
JIM CRAMER: Cisco.
JEFF MARKS: It's too hard to trade around, so maybe look to buy eventually after, of course, a couple more days.
JIM CRAMER: We're gonna tell you this. I mean, we'll tell you. And we have our Thursday call. And we will have a lot of thoughts about that. And when I say "a lot of thoughts," what I mean is that we might have some buys already, but not yet. Not yet.
And a lot of people bought this first dip. We need to see the dip buyers get wiped out. We need to see the Robinhood crypto people get wiped out. Do I want them wiped out? No, but they don't know how to trade. They don't know how to be defensive, and you have to be defensive.
JEFF MARKS: All right. Not yet, let's call the key takeaway of today's show. That's it for today, everyone. We'll see you tomorrow.