In today's Action Alerts PLUS Daily Rundown, Bob Lang says to treat the market rally with skepticism as stocks look to trade on "pivot" chatter concerning the Federal Reserve.
We're up almost 3% so far on the S&P 500. NASDAQ is up strong. Dow Industrials up almost 3% as well, too, but it's still early in the day. We need to find out where we finish at, and if we can attack some of the levels above-- the resistance levels above over the next coming days. So we'll find out if that is today or not.
Certainly, it's off to a good start. Much better than last week, when we had a big huge rally on Wednesday, and lost it all the next day, and then some on Friday. The technicals have showed lately a very oversold condition as of last Friday on several different timeframes. And we mentioned with last week's deep oversold oscillator rating, the market was ripe for a big rally. Was it yesterday and today? Could be a combination of the two.
But remember, the beginning of the month often sees strong money flows into funds, and managers are quick to put that money to work. However-- stating the obvious here-- it is still a bear market, and caution is warranted on every rally attempt. Rallying up to resistance, of course, just offer sellers another chance to get out before the next term lower. Earnings season, of course, is coming up, and while it's not wise to be short or sell during that time frame, this particular one earnings season is pivotal, as it lays the groundwork for earnings in 2023.
And while we wait to see if there's any follow-through on this rally here, we'll be turning our attention to the Fed and pivot talk that is pretty much dominating Wall Street these days. Investors and traders are really reaching for anything to grab onto that would explain a move upward. After a 10% drawdown in September, there are plenty of doubts, but many excuses to be made for trying to play the upside. Frequent chatter lately is talking about a pivot by the Fed, which seems to have investors and traders looking for that moment when the light turns on in the dark room and all the bears run away.
Well, we don't expect any pivot anytime soon. But realize that at some point, it will happen-- just not when everybody expects it to occur. We hear commentary from every pundit out there with an opinion, and that is all there is with a guess on what the Fed might do. In reality, the actions by the Fed remain bold and aggressive. And with five Fed speakers later on today, we'll probably hear some of the same positions restated several times, as of yesterday.
The data is just not coming in weak enough for the Fed to pay less attention to inflation and more attention to the economy. That's going to be it. But don't forget, Thursday is going to be our monthly call. We're moving from Wednesday to Thursday this week, and make sure you're there. High noon on Thursday afternoon, October 6, and we're looking forward to spending a little bit time with you, chatting about the portfolio and other things as well, too. But that's it for today. Have a great day, and we'll see you on Wednesday.