Analysis: TGT BILL AFRM

In Monday's post-holiday podcast Bob and Chris talk about family, friends and lots of food -- especially food -- while getting ready to digest the big week of data to come.
 
They note the heavy dose of economic data to be released over the coming days as November trading ends on Wednesday. We will hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on that day, who is giving a speech about the economy and labor. The markets are likely to move sharply on his words and commentary, say Bob and Chris. They also note that given that we are so close to the next Fed meeting, there is not much Powell will say before then, but note Fed Funds futures are still reflecting a 30% chance of three-quarters a percentage point in that next meeting. Then, we'll get the projections as well.
 
Chris noted if it's a half or three-quarters percentage point, there is little difference other than timing; the important point is the terminal rate (where rate hikes will finish up). Retail has been a mixed bag, Bob and Chris both went to Target ( TGT) and noticed a lack of buyers in the stores, merchandise was stale at best and even sizes were lacking. Perhaps shoppers moved their purchases online, Chris said more than 48% of shopping took place on mobile devices, the highest ever. While Black Friday sales were up to a record 9.2 billion, there could be a game of chicken going on here, buyers waiting for those steep discounts before making purchases. Retailers are being coy.
 
 
Chris and Bob also look at the "buy now, pay later" model (BNPL), which is often seen as "buy now, never pay." If that's the case, names like Affirm Holdings  ( AFRM) and Bill.com ( BILL) are going to have problems. Speaking of problems, the two talked about the issues in China and what is happening, the situation still fluid. If Taiwan enters the picture as China becoming the aggressor, we could see the U.S. involved in more than a token way, and all bets are off with markets.
 
Chris and Bob mention a dozen AAP names have exceeded the S&P 500 over the past seven weeks, an amazing feat. Now, they are looking for more names, though, and continue to rotate money throughout the portfolio.
 
The two closed out the call excited over the next monthly meeting, where they will be together again in New York City, this time at the New York Stock Exchange. Don't miss that one, Dec. 7 at noon.

AAP had no position in any security mentioned.