Name: Action Alerts PLUS Members Call -- April 8, 2021
Uploaded: 2021-04-09T15:05:45-0400
Channel: Jim Cramer
Description: Action Alerts PLUS Members Call -- April 8, 2021

JIM CRAMER: Hello, everyone. Welcome to our April edition of our club call. Right, ActionAlertsPlus.com's club call, where I kind of tell you not only what I think we're doing, but everything else, including some stuff in my life, just because I think people like the personal. And they get that too.

So let's start with the personal view. We shouldn't be going up. Think about it. I mean, we have a Democratic president. And when he announced his infrastructure package, it's really much more of a budget busting, climate control, jobs program. And while he does it, he says he's a union man, a union man! And doesn't that mean he's against capital?

I was a union man for a couple years. I was against capital. I mean, stocks are the epitome of capital. We have interest rates that are so low, and, of course, going even lower today, that they are allowing all kinds of inflationary speculation, including these ridiculous non fungible tokens, which have been plummeting, by the way.

And any celebrity who wants a SPAC, I don't want to give a celebrity a SPAC. I mean, the celebrities are the people that I know. I'd never give them any money. I can count on one hand the celebrities that I think are worth giving money to.

As a disciplined person who likes the rigor of the capital markets, these seem-- I don't know. They seem like jokes being played on the middle class. We have prominent and powerful senators of the majority party, no longer fringe folks, calling for wealth confiscation. That's right. That Senator Warren. And she's no longer a lonely voice.

Yes, if you have done well, they want to redistribute not your income, but your property, your stocks! The cohort that owns most of our stocks, the wealthy, is about to get socked with giant tax increases that, if history dictates, should bring a flood of selling before they're enacted.

On top of that, we lost a president who cared about the averages going higher than any other president in history. He literally graded his performance by whether the Dow, or the S&P, or the NASDAQ banged out new highs.

He called me once. And he was just-- when he was celebrating how great the market was doing, and how he was going to kill Mad Money because he was coming in against me with his press conferences. Well, I beat him.

Anyway, a president who believed that all would be well if the stock market stayed high? Well, that's a guy that you wanted in the White House whether you liked him or not. Instead we have perhaps the most liberal president, at least in my lifetime. And I've seen plenty of liberal presidents.

The president wouldn't know the Dow from Dow Chemical, and has spent years in the Senate being proud of being the poorest of the 100. He told me that on the train once. I sat next to him when he came in on Wilmington.

And he was saying, hey, listen. He said, I'd love to ask to pick your brain on stocks, but I don't have any investments. I said, OK. And he said, listen, I'm the poorest senator. Proud. OK, well, he's not your stock guy.

Now, I know you have heard that we are going up instead of down for a bunch of reasons, because of the Federal Reserve's attempts to keep interest rates low. But remember, we have lower long term rates. And the Fed doesn't control those.

It bought a huge amount of bonds that had been issued in the last year. Like Jamie Dimon said in his amazing letter that came out yesterday, the Fed has bought the equivalent of all the bonds the Treasury has issued.

But it hasn't issued a lot of long dated paper. And that's what stocks are really measured against. And rates are low all over the world. Is Jay Powell keeping those rates low too? He alone in the lack of bond competition to stocks? But they're not up. They can't explain it. People say it on TV, but they can't.

Yes, there are inflationary spikes everywhere, plastic, steel, the semiconductors. And right now they don't seem to faze Powell, who wants minority hiring to pick up before he takes up the short end of rates, which is what he does control.

Again, he's got a good reason why there's not a lot to selling, despite inflation, which could prove less transient than he thinks. That may make you not want to sell, but don't tell me he is the reason to buy in this situation. He's the reason to hold. But to buy? No.

So then you have to ask, is it because we have pseudo gridlock and the market likes gridlock? Remember, you need the filibuster. And that means really you need 60 senators to do anything.

I don't think so, though, even as I do believe there are enough Democrats to block the so-called infrastructure package. And that would be viewed as positive by many people because it costs so much.

Is it the stimulus money that was just received, 25 million checks just yesterday, that's triggered all this buying since the election? I think that those who got this money are spending a lot more wisely than buying high flying stocks this time around. Although, they might be buying index funds, which is why I think Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft are going higher.

They're the largest stocks in the S&P. They're the principal beneficiaries of money coming into the S&P 500. They can move more than any other when it comes to index buying.

All right, I think there's a combination of things that have kept the bulls in the air, despite what anyone would say are we are at a lofty level. I, like many, think the money that moved out of the price to sales stocks-- and I have a piece this morning on Real Money-- like a Roku, it's better served by being the price to earnings support that it has landed in. And there I mentioned Caterpillar.

You understand what I'm saying. I'm saying that price to sales stocks will be a Snowflake, whether it be a Ring Central, a ZScaler, a Crowdstrike. Those are the ones that have been hurt. And they're going into stocks like our Honeywell, like our UPS that are really just graded by earnings per share.

Frankly, I'm not all sure that we can stay up here. I don't like that there's so much that is just so expensive. I wish that stocks were lower. But what does wishing have to do with it?

So what do you do when you have no reason in hand to sell but know that stocks can't go up endlessly when there's simply not enough good to sustain the move? The move like we're getting today? What do you do when the level of optimism is the highest you can recall, and the complacency is so thick you can cut it with some Cutco?

Well, then what you do I think is you rely on your discipline, and you make sales regardless of whether everything looks good in the action. That's not how to do it. And that is the reason why we sold more than $100,000 in stock on Wednesday alone. And that's after sending about $200,000 to charity last week, but still maintained a very healthy cash position.

So you don't raise cash because you fear a rally, all right. You don't raise cash because you fear a rally. That's that FOMO stuff. You raise it because you fear a decline. And that's what I fear right now. I just do.

My discipline says, when it looks and feels good, and everybody's so excited, they're all bulled up, be careful. Now, I am not saying-- I want to be careful about this-- I am not saying we are at a perilous moment. We are not in the canary in the coal mine, Wiley Coyote moment where the darn cartoon character is peddling in the air after falling off a cliff.

The Archegos fiasco, for instance, I believe that is one off. And I know that's very contrary on the site of Real Money, by the way. I believe it's a one off, not [INAUDIBLE] today. It certainly is terrible [INAUDIBLE] risk controls.

The one [INAUDIBLE] of [INAUDIBLE] Credit Suisse they used to be [INAUDIBLE]. And now they're just Credit Suisse. And they've lost a lot of their credibility.

Now, it is great if you're JPMorgan, which has the good sense to stay away from the so-called family offices that triggered these billions of losses. There have been many on TV and in the street that have said, there is no such thing as one off when it comes to this kind of action. But there have been so many instances of one offs, I'm not even debating it. This Archegos is not a reason to sell.

But here's how I feel. Against these bearish forces that I've outlined, this Republican president and rates that are so low that people are speculating, and the stocks are so high that they're being valued as price to sales, one thing does stand supreme. And it's valuable.

I think things got calm. Now, maybe that's what's making us complacent. Things got calm. I think we have traded crazy, rapacious capitalism under President Trump for calm, redistributing capitalism. And the former has been found wanting, while the latter, while on a percentage basis, is difficult-- witness the corporate tax rate fight-- ultimately can be handled with aplomb. We like calm out of Washington.

It's almost as if it's better to know what's going to happen, even if it hurts your pocketbook-- again, the corporate tax rate-- then to not know what will happen even if you could end up making money. Because who wants to check Twitter every minute? Who knows what fight's going to be picked?

So what could tip the balance to justify our sales, as well as more sales that we will make at even higher levels? And that I'm promising you, we make them as if by rote, but it's really by discipline. Let me give you three things I am watching for to be sure we don't have to start taking off our core positions, even if we like them as much as we do.

And by the way, these three things are things that I'm worried about. The fourth, fifth, sixth seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth are the ones I don't even know about. Those are the unknowns, which is, again, when you have such complacency, you've got to be worried about.

And we all know, club members, that there's been no club member call where we didn't have a sudden decline all of a sudden. And I got to be looking at the tape while I'm doing this call. But here's the things I am worried about.

First, if the insider selling, and the new issue offerings, and the analyst back issuances finally overwhelm the market with supply and deals go to a discount immediately, well, we will take more firm action. Yes, some SPACs have fallen to and, in some cases, through their $10 floor, so to speak. The SEC's taken a look at them.

But most IPOs are still going to a premium. And if you bought any of the secondaries out there, like the major ones for the cruise ships, well, then you've made a lot of money.

So I can't say that the issuance has overwhelmed the market at all like it did in 2000 and 2001. Not at all. And to me, that's a sign of strength, not weakness. So again, we have some wriggle room. That's what makes it so, again, it's not a perilous situation.

Second, if the 10-year goes to 2%, then we need to be concerned that it will at last become competition to all the 3% stock yielders out there. And there are enough of them in the S&P 500 that you could see a decline in the indices of some substantiality.

And don't forget, we're still far away from it. Interest rates are down again today. That's bringing in a lot of buying. But you could see a sell off if it goes to 2%. And that and the possibility that people will read that the 10-year sell off is the beginning of a Fed rate increase cycle will more certainly cause the market to go lower, even as the first few rate hikes have historically not slain the bull.

Doesn't matter. In the end, we will sell stocks on rate hike cycles. And that's because that's how I know what to do. A lot of what you're hearing is 40 years worth of debunking what others have told you.

Finally, and this is starting next week, if the earnings turn out to be so horrendous that we actually get downgrades based on forecast cuts, not valuation-- I don't expect that to happen, OK? I really don't. In fact, given the environment, I expect the earnings to be good.

Still, given the run, you have to believe that there will be individual analysts and strategists who are willing to say goodbye to this market cause it's so expensive historically. I actually expect most companies, particularly both the large cap techs and the industrials, to report good numbers, good enough for the stocks to stay in this range or even go higher.

And the stocks of companies that trade in the off period, like right now, or last week, they're all pretty good. So again, I'm not confident. I'm wary. But I'm not panicking, and I'm not scared.

But if I have real issues, then you've got to ask, why not sell everything? Right? I mean, if I really think that it's so complacent, why not put the pedal to the metal?

Well, to those who are new, and even to some of you older club members, that's simply not how we work around here. We are selling stock because our discipline says we have to. We are always willing to sell when we think that enough is enough. We are vulnerable to something we can't see right now because people are so bullish. But we have to be ready.

Unlike a majority of owners, both in the mutual funds and hedge funds, and maybe with you, a majority, we like taking profits. It means in a world of greed with little fear, we aren't greedy, and we are fearful.

And by the way, when I sold some Bitcoin, when I sold some stocks that everybody liked on Reddit, WallStreetBets, they were furious at me. But I said, again, my discipline says after a big run, you do some selling.

It is not after a big run, you get worried about price to earnings. At a big run, we get price to sales. At a big run, you take some profits, because you don't know what's going to happen.

Now, no manager who comes on TV ever does what I outline, or even admits to it. No one says, I am worried about something, but I can't pin it down, so I'm going to do some selling. It's almost as if you are afraid of your shadow. So I get why they wouldn't want to do it.

But see, I'm not afraid of my shadow. I'm afraid of history. Where I think that those reasons I gave at the top could dawn on people, the president, the expensive market, how inflation may not be ephemeral, and that will bring out sellers. And I don't want to look back and say, what was I thinking? Things are very, very expensive, oscillator way up. Lots of things that I'm worried about in terms of inflation, in terms of quarters that may not go well, and I didn't do any selling?

Why not sell aggressively? Again, I'll tell you. Because it is pretty darn clear that even on negative news sellers are hard to come by. I would imagine that 60% of stocks are now owned by indexers, who don't sell even as they turn all sorts of unfathomable baby boomer ages. Because they can't get a return elsewise, and because they've been pretty much brainwashed that you shouldn't sell. And they don't want to go into a 2% risk free treasury, because they can't make any money.

We know that there's always going to be some money coming into the market naturally to sate these sellers. I do not want to wake up one day, though, and find that there are a plethora of IPOs that fail and secondaries that bow up for whatever reason, and there's no new money coming in. Because my experience is stocks go down far faster than they go up. And you won't be able to take action if you're not taking action when things are up. Remember, we like to sell strength and buy weakness, not buy strength.

For the moment we will make our next sales if the market gets even more overbought. We are now at north of 5 on that S&P oscillator I like to follow. That is a paid oscillator, and I love it. And it's never-- well, it's let me down maybe twice since 1986.

And when the oscillator goes above 5, my discipline-- sell even if you don't want to. You have to sell something, which is exactly where we are.

I find that when you are closer to a top than a bottom, all sells look bad, right? Immediately. Hey, look, let's use one. Do I think, great-- I took this Waste Management off of my screen. That was my choice in order to raise a lot of capital as it went higher, because it wasn't doing anything. And I felt that people decided it wasn't going to do anything. And we put money in another stock. But Waste Management then went up.

Every sale that you make as we go higher is a painful one. As much as I was thrilled at the sale of Goldman Sachs for a huge gain, I see it. I see it right now up $0.33. I want that $0.33. But I'm going to take it off of my screen.

I am not going to play after [INAUDIBLE] the would've, should've, could've game if it keeps rising. Especially we own almost no financials, and I don't mind that. I just don't think the financials-- it had a very big run. And they report first. And I don't think that they're in good shape for the quarter.

Why? Because everybody's estimates are so high. So I feel good about our sales, in aggregate, even though I look at individual stocks and I can't believe how high they keep going.

But I think that until we get to another couple of percentages higher, we can now hold off. We can sell stuff when we need to. But that, as I was going over with Jeff and Zev, we don't need to right now.

Typically, you know I like to do something during the conference call cause we're all together. But before the call, we went over the positions and found that there was nothing imminent that we needed to do.

So that's our current stance. Sorry to be so long winded about it, but I want you to know it. And I am not going to change our stance unless one of the three signposts, higher rates, failed stock sales, or actual missed forecasts en masse forces us to raise cash to over 10%, or maybe even over 15%, which we've taken at times when we really do feel that it could be a perilous moment.

All right, so how about individual stocks? Now, long time club members know I don't think there is much to learn from great buys. When someone buys something, it goes straight up, that person is going to think he's a genius. And I can't do anything to persuade him or her otherwise. So we're not going to do that here.

I think the strength of the product this club offers is its analysis of my mistakes, not my so-called genius. Doesn't help. Which is why I'd like to go right into the finger in my eye, just right there. I want to talk about Eli Lilly.

We brought Lilly, in retrospect, at the top. And we did badly. We did badly for you. We did badly for the trust. We screwed it up.

And we screwed it up because we had total confidence in the CEO, David Ricks, who came on Mad Money, and pretty much said his company's Alzheimer's drug was going to show some amazing results that you wouldn't believe.

Alzheimer's, largest addressable market in the world? So I decided, based on that conversation and the work I did away from Lilly, of course-- away from Ricks, of course-- I decided to bet with Ricks, not against him.

Ricks was wrong, very wrong. The data came out. And while one part of it, the part involving plaque reversal was stunning, the evidence just wasn't conclusive enough. It wasn't in sync with what Ricks said.

The stock's been straight down ever since. It is so painful. It was up 1% and change earlier this morning. Of course, now it's up less than $1. I suspect the sellers are going to come back.

Well, then you got to ask, why did we buy some stock yesterday? What was the point? It's simple. Because at this moment, Lilly is almost back to where it was when people first started getting excited about Lilly's Alzheimer's treatment. It's like you are getting that brain plaque reduction for free. And I want that brain plaque reduction. And you should too if there's no side effects.

Now, I think that buying it here is as good a bet as the bet at $207 was. It was bad. We know from a JPMorgan piece that came out yesterday that physicians are more encouraged about the drug than Wall Street is. And they are the ones that will matter in the end.

And on a personal note, a personal note, I think Dave, Dave Ricks, the CEO, who has been a straight shooter with me all the way, including telling me when drugs might not pass regulatory muster, that he had-- I don't think he's going to bag me. He would not bag me here.

This disease is so horrible that I think we all want to take this pill. Why not try to cut the risk of getting Alzheimer's, or at least delay it? There have been whole companies based on nostrums that have gotten past the FDA, and people took the pills every day. Why not get brain plaque removed if there are no side effects?

And then you got to ask yourself, why would Dave be so confident? Did I read him wrong? Absolutely not. Of that I am sure.

So this Lilly situation is now the kind I live for. No, of course, I didn't want to battle the stock of Eli Lilly on the way down. I wanted to battle it when we were close to where we are paying almost nothing for the possibility if the drug works.

I would pay-- if there was no Alzheimer's drug, if they weren't even working on it, I think that Lilly is inexpensive at $183. I'm going to repeat that. If they didn't have an Alzheimer's drug, I would buy Lilly cause of its diabetes pipeline for $183, for its oncological pipeline.

So forget Alzheimer's. I'm pulling the trigger, Lilly, right here. It's that much of a bargain. Why should I have any say, given the fact that I screwed up at $207?

Well, you know, what you do is you pick yourself up off the floor and you start doing it. I mean, for instance, I wish it were like another one, Crown Castle. It does feel like Crown Castle, which is recommended again today.

Now, that stock, if you remember, we bought it. And it just kept going lower, and lower, and lower. And we had tons of questions on it, including on the call. And what was happening when it was getting lower was that business kept getting better, and better, and better, really big contracts from these companies that needed to be able to have more towers because they're winning at these giant auctions. But it doesn't matter if they win the auctions without towers.

Yes, the business kept getting better, and we kept buying. Now, looking back, I know it seems like with Crown Castle at $176 that it was a layup, right? It was the proverbial layup. How could you miss?

I mean, they were getting bigger orders. Everyone was downgrading the other ones. It's got Elliott Partners in there, [INAUDIBLE] screaming [INAUDIBLE]. It looked like it couldn't miss at $176. Actually, in $146 where it couldn't miss, everybody wanted to sell. And we got endless numbers of emails, questioning, questioning, questioning, a lot of questions on Mad Money, clearly from members of the club, questioning.

Now, I think that's how I feel if we look back at Lilly. This is what I'm going to feel like if we look back at Lilly a couple months from now. I think that's what's going to happen. I think we're going to look back, and it's going to be much higher. And we're going to say, oh, that's like Crown Castle.

As a matter of fact, I'm going to say something pretty bold here. I think Lilly is now my favorite stock in the portfolio when it comes to buying and buying right now. I would buy it aggressively if you don't own it. If you're new to the club, I would do it.

Now, don't forget. All the drug stocks are out of favor. That Bristol's out of favor. AbbVie's out of favor. But if we get any sort of slowdown caused by higher rates, as long as the 10-year doesn't breach 2.5%-- and we're nowhere near that-- we will do well in Lilly.

I am telling you, we are playing offense with Lilly. Bristol and AbbVie are great hedges to a lot of the portfolio. I remain confident that the controversial drug you hear about from AbbVie, that's this Rinvoq for the gigantic rheumatoid arthritis market, will not only be approved. But I think it will be a blockbuster. So AbbVie, if you don't own any with this terrific yield, I sanction buying it.

But again, I like Eli Lilly a lot more. The 5% yield from AbbVie is terrific.

All right, so after Lilly, what are my next favorites to buy in the portfolio? And I know, Jeff and I were going over this. And people always want to know, which are the ones if they just joined, or they're looking at it, which are the ones that I want them to buy right now? So let's go over that.

My next two favorites are the retailers, Walmart and Costco. Now, the former is off its highs and has a fantastic brick and mortar e-com platform. Some people say it's slowing. I'm not buying that.

As well as a new catalyst, which is the potential sale of some of its controlling position in Flipkart. That's the Indian Amazon. I think this stock, which is up 4 for this week could go back to its highs, not unlike Home Depot and Lowe's. And that would give it 14 points of upside.

Do you know that Walmart's one of the worst stocks in the Dow this year? It's off 3%. And that makes it relatively cheap. Costco, on the other hand, isn't cheap. But if I can buy the stock of a retailer that just reported 17% comp store levels-- I would call it 11% if you back up gasoline-- well, I mean, this was the incredibly hard month for Costco, right?

I mean, remember, the pandemic had begun. People were going into Costco and stripping the shelves of things. So it was a really hard quarter, really hard month to compare. And wow, it blew it away.

By the way, I think even they were surprised. I think they were shocked. Oh, by the way, you know when this pandemic will be over, as I told David Faber this morning? When they bring back those darn free samples at Costco.

I like both these stocks. Now, let me just say that my friend Larry Williams, who told me last week on the Off the Charts segment on Mad Money that this would be a great chart-- a great two trades, both Walmart and Costco, right into the next three days after Easter.

Did-- I checked in with him today for you, and he thinks that you can ring the register, but if you bought just for a trade. I have told him that we are investors in the stocks. But he's just saying anyone who bought it for a trade, you had your catalyst. You had what you need.

I think that he's a technician. I'm a fundamentalist. The fact that Costco had 17% comps, the fact that Walmart's well off its highs and is doing very well, and you've got that Flipkart, those are buys.

Next, another one that's bugging me. I know it's bugging you. It's Advanced Micro, all right. Now, I had Gary Dickerson on last night. He's the CEO of the biggest semiconductor capital equipment company on Earth, Applied Materials.

And one thing is for certain. After talking about Intel I'm confident that Intel does matter. Intel, by the way, is calling-- Pat Gelsinger, the CEO, is calling anybody to say, look, we're going to catch up to AMD, and pass them.

But Intel may huff and puff. And it might try to blow the AMD house down. But there just aren't enough machines, capital equipment machines for it to become competitive to Advanced Micro Devices perhaps for the next two years, all right?

In the meantime, I expect AMD to get regulatory approval to close the deal with Xilinx. It got shareholder approval just yesterday. And you know what that's going to do? It's going to take the endless AMD versus Intel rivalry at last off the table once and for all.

That will be reason enough to buy. Buy now. If it weren't enough that AMD should have an amazing quarter and has a lot of terrific products out. You know I speak to Lisa Su, the CEO.

I was pretty appalled that Intel was really just saying, listen, you've got to start worrying about us. I mean, you can't just one day get the new job and say that Lisa Su, I'm gunning for you. Look out. Lisa Su has spent the last five years developing the best pipeline.

And I don't think that Intel can challenge that pipeline. And that pipeline is what matters. And if you go to the AMD meeting that they had not long ago, you heard about who their partners were. It was everybody and the cloud. And that's who AMD is making them for.

And they're making them for almost every PC maker. So I am not going to back away from AMD. I am going to urge you right here. And we have done it at these levels, so I can't keep doing it. But at $83 this is down from $99, and down 10% for the year. I am saying AMD. That one's a buy.

OK, now, there are a lot of people who think that AMD is being held back by the acquisition. You want to know who's really being held back by an acquisition? Salesforce, CRM. People don't like this slack deal. I think Salesforce will do with Slack what it did with Tableau and MuleSoft, making it a fantastic asset alone, and taking it, and merging it with the whole suite of Salesforce products, and making it so that it's kind of like a 2 plus 2 equals 5, maybe even 6 when it comes to Slack. Because this is the way that Marc is going to be able to-- Marc Benioff is going to be able to take on Microsoft. And he's got to do it.

Anyone who's used Slack, and I use Slack, knows, I think, how much better is the Microsoft product? Marc certainly knows. I think the combination is going to be lethal for almost anybody in the business. It's going to make me think hard about our Microsoft decision. And I think it's going to be terrific for you if you're a shareholder.

In the meantime, I think that Salesforce has become the value stock of the cloud, something that I wish I could say for so many others. It's up today because there's a cloud piece that came out that basically said the cloud has been undervalued.

And Salesforce is starting to do better. But I think [INAUDIBLE] of the stock that it's decline is really over I think. Now, I love the transaction. You know in fact I have to laugh when I hear that the market has turned toward value stocks. And why? Well that's because we have stocks like Alphabet, Apple, and Facebook that are all cheaper than every major industrial that I follow. And yet, these are the hot stocks right now. Value? I don't know.

Of the three, though, I would only think to buy Apple for the moment, because it truly does represent value versus the numbers I think it can be. The service revenue and 5G prospects can take the stock higher, maybe much higher. Yes, own it, don't trade it. Nothing has changed.

You know, I was on TV last week. And there was an analyst-- I'm going to leave his name out, OK? I'm going to leave his name out. But I will tell you that he said, listen, Apple--

And let me just give you this, because I think this is very instructive about what I have to deal with. Apple was at the time at $119, OK? And the he came on and said, look, I see no reason to buy Apple. I think Apple's headed lower. Apple had just now come down a lot of points. Well, it's at $129. Boom, that was like a terrible call.

I came on air after. I said, listen, here's my feeling on Apple. I don't know what's going to happen near term. I just want you to own it, don't trade it. Had you decided to trade it, what are you going to do? Come back in here at $129? Sell it at $119, buy it back at $129? You get the point.

Now, the other two. Let's talk about them, Facebook and Alphabet. I think that there's no need right now to pull the trigger. They have run up a great deal. We see the numbers. We do recognize that we are dealing with growers of 20% that are selling at less than 30 times earnings. So growth at a reasonable price, yes. Alphabet has it, and Facebook has it.

But you know me. I'm not going to tell you that you should come and buy Alphabet up 10 after being up gigantically. And Facebook is down today, but it was at its high at 10 o'clock, at its all time high at $315.

So I'm not going to tell you that I think that this is the time to buy these. I like stocks. Remember, I don't like to chase. And both of these, it's the equivalent of chasing.

Just checking to see how-- we can go back almost-- you got to wait for a dip when it comes to Facebook. And it's given you-- in the last two years, it's given you one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight dips. So let's wait for a dip before you buy Facebook.

So then there are stocks that look expensive but will turn out to be cheap on next year's earnings. Let's talk about those. We are going to have one of the strongest travel bull markets in history. And I think most of the airlines do not have enough planes to traffic their flights. They really are. I deal with all of them.

Now, yes, travel might be down. But catch up and events, and weddings, and family get togethers will be unabated. And I think that every airline is going to have to reassess its fleet. Yes, David Faber argued about today. David doesn't think the business traveler comes back.

I am of the opinion that if JPMorgan sends its salesperson out to see you that Bank of America will send someone too. All right? And so is Wells Fargo.

But what matters when it comes to the planes is that you have to order from Boeing. And why? Well, Boeing has enough planes to handle any amount of demand. And they'll send you the plane. If you order a plane this morning, they'll send you a plane this evening.

And I do believe, because I was checking on Boeing ahead of the conference call-- I do believe that there could be some good news next week. Boeing may have-- Remember, what's happened with Boeing-- let me just go over this for a second. Here's the way things were with Boeing.

Southwest was going to go to Airbus. Southwest called Boeing and said, we're going to Airbus. Boeing offered these planes at an incredibly low price, therefore allowing them to get the service revenue. So they take a hit up front. But everybody feels they do that.

And then what happens? Well, another airline, Alaska, sees that. And they say, I want the Southwest price. Yeah, it's like getting the Rogers price for State Farm. And then other airlines are going to have to do the exact same thing, because they're beginning to see their own numbers. And they realize, holy cow, we are going to have maybe the biggest boom in travel history, and we don't have enough planes. So I think Boeing, while it doesn't look cheap, will ultimately be cheap on 2023 numbers. Not in 2022 because they're not selling the planes for enough money.

All right, you want cheap in the portfolio. How about Norton LifeLock? I know, you're probably groaning right now. Am I discouraged that it hasn't moved? Yes, as discouraged as I was with Waste Management before it gave it a 20 point spurt.

I would like to see some insider buying to complement its most recent company purchase, which I thought was a very good idea. I am urging patience on LifeLock. And I know that most people are short patience. They're not patient with Lilly. They're not patient with Advanced Micro. They weren't patient with Viacom. Well, what does the last one tell you? And not just because of Archegos.

I also think that Marvell Tech will turn out to be cheap, because next year we'll be in full fledged 5G heaven. And this remains the stock to invest in for 5G I think that it's very clear from Gary Dickerson last night, Applied Materials, it's going to be as big as ever.

Now, these stocks sold off hard after running so much into its quarter, but now it's recharged. It's less expensive than all the other 5G plays I follow, other than Broadcom, which remains a total value anomaly. Broadcom.

Yeah, this Broadcom is just incredible. It's down $1 today to $481. And talk about a buy on any weakness. Broadcom trades like an auto stock.

Oh, but let me take that back. Ford remains one of my faves, even after its monster run. And to think that if it just could get more semiconductors for a couple of bucks, if it could get, it could make as much as $2 billion more this year. I love that kind of leverage.

If we can get the chips-- man, believe me, I've called all the suppliers. When you own a position like I do, I check in with everybody. And I've called the suppliers. I do think, by the way, that there's the possibility that there will be a break in the amount of chips that they need, and that they will actually get it by the fourth quarter.

The analysts on the street think it's not going to happen til 2022. I think the analysts are going to be wrong, which is why Ford dropped to $11. I would urge you to buy.

Now, if e-commerce continues as hot as it is-- and, by the way, if Costco was north of 2% last night-- I see no reason why the stock of United Parcel can't go any higher. This is another one, by the way, that people have lost patience with that I do want to say we are up on.

Carol Tome the CEO-- she used to be a CFO at Home Depot-- hasn't gotten as much respect as I thought she would in running the company. She has exceeded her targets, and will soon, at least at this pace of rationalization, be making more per unit of each envelope, each product than people thought were possible even a year ago.

I am telling you-- I'm not saying she's discriminated against, but I just don't get it. I think this stock is very, very cheap.

OK, what's not cheap that I still like enough to be a one? Remember, we grade all the stocks, for new people. We grade the stocks. I think Amazon is going to have good revenues, but unbelievable earnings, given that it won't be spending $4 billion on COVID this year. That's how much it spent last year.

I think that Amazon comes under the have two, want to category of post pandemics. First you had to, and now you want to. Andy Jassy, met him, brilliant, not worried. Adam Selipsky who just took over at Amazon Web Services, had him. Went to a Warriors game with him and his wife when I was out West.

My wife was like, who is this guy? Is this guy like-- a millionaire or something. Adam Selipsky's doing a fantastic job at Amazon Web Services. And I am so, so excited about Amazon, because right now you've got Bezos, who's working his butt off for you. You got Jassy working his butt off for you. And now you have Selipsky in the most important position, which is web services.

All right, so how about another one that's not cheap, Linde. But Linde's never been cheap. I can tell you, ever since the industrial gas companies merged into a duopoly, something that should never have been allowed, you've got Linde and Air Products pricing in ways that I think is insane.

But Linde reminds me of Honeywell, a secular grower with a cyclical kicker. Now, in the case of Honeywell, by the way, that's a return to aerospace growth. In the case of Linde, it's hydrogen, which they can make a fortune with if this gas ever goes green in a systemic way. And I think that governments are going to make that happen all over the world.

That's the one, the fuel that everybody wants, green hydrogen. South Korea and China are moving very, very excellently on it. They're pushing it very hard. They're willing to lose a lot of money, because green hydrogen is the cleanest fuel, provided that the electricity you use doesn't cost a lot of money and is hopefully not powered by coal.

Now, or even natural gas-- powered by solar-- it's an excellent fuel. Hydrogen is an excellent fuel. Not for cars. It will never be used for cars, hydrogen. It's for long haul trucks. And did you know now that long haul trucks are the greatest sources of climate destruction on Earth? Yes, more than coal plants.

All right, here's a tough one. I wake up screaming about this one. It just drives me so crazy. And here it is. It's doing its thing again today. It's Nike.

I don't know what to say about Nike. It missed its quarter. But that was because of the port fiasco. I thought that was reasonable. I get that.

But the port fiasco's not getting any better. At the same time, I don't know what's really going to happen to them in China. I mean, they're a pretty freethinking company, right? What happens if they come out and say, listen, we love China, but we don't like slavery?

I guess you hear what I'm saying. See, I had high hopes that this one would be in the high $40s by now. And instead, I'm beginning to be concerned that there are real, more intractable issues going on here that I want to handle. Suffice it to say that I think that we may have to reconsider this being a one if it gets back to the low $140s, simply because there are better fish to fry.

As it climbs you can expect to see us downgrade it. And then ultimately, maybe we have to say goodbye. It's the diciest stock we have in our portfolio as far as I'm concerned.

Then a couple conundrums. Microsoft, Take Two, Nvidia. These are simply the best of breed of their areas, right? And they're overvalued. So I worry. Of these, Take Two is the most dicey, because it is caught in a stay-at-home, work-at-home paradigm that says people won't play video games now that they can't go out.

It might take two quarters to disprove that canard. And don't forget. They've got a redo of Grand Theft Auto. But people disregard it. It's been completely pigeonholed, down again. It's down today. It's at $183.

We had a nice profit. Remember, we sold a lot higher. We bought that back lower. But let's keep watching.

Nvidia. I think it's up another 8 today. Nvidia, it just gets better and better. New products are soon to beckon. There is a keynote speech that I will watch on Monday from Jensen Huang at a conference he has every year.

And the buying here at Nvidia is totally in advance of that, what has usually been a breathtaking conference call with major additions. It's going to be a phenomenal speech, and people are getting ahead of that.

Of course, Nvidia's also doing its best to-- well, let's put it this way. Nvidia is trying to discourage the people from thinking it's a Bitcoin play. So don't think that. And it's trying to close the Arm Holdings deal, which a lot of people think won't happen.

I have said over and over again, don't worry about that stuff. If it can't close, it will still go higher, all right? Nvidia's trading on its products, and its products are the best.

Microsoft is the safe tech big cap because it's not getting the scrutiny the others have in Washington. It's expensive, but not prohibitively so, given the fact you don't have to pick up the paper and see Senator Warren all over it for something it did.

Of the rest of our ones, let's say Union Pacific before I invite my partner Jeff Marks over to trace out the story of our newest name. Now, how about the twos that I haven't covered? I still like Abbott, not because of its COVID numbers, but because of its Libre anti-diabetes franchise, which is crushing it.

That said, if you asked me what I would like to sell to raise cash, well, a couple points up I would say this one. I just went over it with Jeff right before the conference call, to say, listen, I'm worried about Abbott. But he's much less worried. And that's important.

So I mean, we're going to hold it right here. DuPont, we just sold some after a quick post flavored division divestiture. Is fine. I have to tell you, I think DuPont's not great, not bad. We do want to own some cyclicals for the great reopening, and that does the trick.

Disney. Well, I can't tell you to buy it after this run. But I think it can go to $200 on any good news. And as the pandemic winds down, it will have a lot of good news in movies and a lot of good news in theme parks, a lot of good news in cruises, and even some good news in ABC. So you can make your own mind up, because that's what you do as a member of the club. $187. I do think it's going to $200.

All right, we waffle over MasterCard pretty much regularly, almost every day. But it's always seen in the end as an international travel stock, and international travel has not opened yet. And when it does, I think you're going to have a stock that goes even higher than it has right now. It is a great fintech stock. It's up 7. It's 11 points from its high.

How about Starbucks? Another conundrum. The stock is so expensive. I mean, remember, we bought it at $56 right in one of these conference calls, because that was when Bill Ackman came out and said, impending doom, whatever. And Starbucks traded that day at $57. We bought it because there was no reason for it to be down there.

Now it's at $113. That's pretty high. But what people are buying it for is turnaround United States. It's like Chipotle, though. It can levitate higher because of a dearth of consumer spending stocks that are taking share from others because of the downfall of their competitors. 150,000 restaurants have closed because of this darn pandemic. That's a lot of business for Starbucks to pick up, isn't it?

Finally, let me touch again on Crown Castle. Here's a stock that should never have been at $146, OK. It was a hefty 3 and change yield. Got there because it's a REIT and that cohort traded down.

It got there because its competitors aren't doing as well, but it is. I think the 5G tower spin cycle is about to begin. And I think this stock can sustain a strong advance before the naysayers even come around to believing.

There's a lot here to like, except that I think it can retreat. It wouldn't shock me if this stock went down. It's $176. It wouldn't shock me if it went down 5 or 6 points. That's a better entry point. I want you to wait for it.

What can I say? I like the portfolio so much. We haven't done much in the way of the bullpen, because I don't want to sell what we have to buy what we don't have.

Remember what I said, it's like an art collection. OK, I don't want to sell the Marilyn shot red by Warhol. But if I have to find a better stock, if I find a Cezanne that I want, or a Picasso, I will sell the Marilyn Shot Red, but I don't see anything in this portfolio that I want to sell in order to buy another company's stock. And that's what we do.

Now, we're going to touch on that, and how hard it is to get in the bullpen in a moment. It's much harder now than it used to be in the old days. If you look at the stocks in the one category you can see, that there's plenty we haven't touched other than to sell for the trust. To me, that means we have plenty of room if we have a serious downturn to do some buying of the fabulous ones that we have taken profits on, simply because of our discipline, our discipline. That's just how I like it.

Before I bring Jeff in, let me remind you that this club is like nothing else out there. We are interactive. We will get to your questions in a moment. We are hard working. We are accessible. We are transparent.

And most of all, well, let's just say we will do anything legal for you that they would never do in a mutual fund or a hedge fund. Try getting a mutual fund manager on the phone. Try speaking to a hedge fund manager. Try to get them to do a conference call.

They're not going to do it. They're not interested in you. You know why I can say that? Other than the fact that I was a hedge fund manager? Well, one is because it is true. OK, but two is because the truth, well, when you say it you can see how we feel.

I mean, I talked about Lilly. That was a disaster. I think it comes back. But I talk about my bad ones and dwell on them, because that's what I do in real life.

I don't go home at night and talk about how great I feel about Google. I go home and think about how bad I feel about Lilly. I beat myself up. And I beat myself up. And then it finally gets to a level where I think, wow, if I didn't own the stock, I'd be buying it hand over fist. So that's exactly what we have to do.

There are no conflicts here, people. It's a club. What's your commission? I'm not in charge of your account, taking a percent fee. I don't charge the 1 and 20 of the hedge funds.

Well, what I can say about this is been there, done that when it comes to the hedge fund. And I like this a lot better. It's a lot more fun.

All right, since we've seen you last we've only added one name. And we did, again, send out the near $200,000 for charity, which I'm very proud of, because now we've sent out more than $3 million since we started.

Remember, we have to send out any gains and dividends. That's why it's very hard for us to comp out, like nil. But I want to bring in Jeff to talk about our most recent acquisition that we made, which is Union Pacific. Jeff Marks, take it away.

JEFF MARKS: Thanks Jim, so Union Pacific, it's a reopening story. It's an accelerating economic growth story that trades at 23 times forward earnings with a 1.75% dividend yield. And management has a strong habit of repurchasing stock.

The company did about $750 million worth of buybacks in the fourth quarter. And management plans to continue repurchases in 2021. But when we talk about how strong US and global economic growth is expected to be this year, and perhaps even through 2023, according to Jamie Dimon's letter to JPMorgan shareholders yesterday, none of this is possible without an increase in supply chain and industrial transport activity.

And what makes the railroad so attractive in an accelerating economic growth environment is that they have so much exposure to all these different parts of the economy. So let's break down what Union Pacific's major segments are. In bulk, yes, coal may be in secular decline, but grain is seeing strong growth right now. And Union Pacific's Western exposure means soybean exports to China have to go through them.

And also in bulk, biofuels represent somewhat of a newer growth opportunity as domestic manufacturing increases this year and beyond. In industrial, this is going to be energy and specialized shipments. We should see that improve volumes. And I'm talking a lot about volumes when I say improve.

We should see that improve alongside the demand for oil this year with economies reopening, a major infrastructure package. That would be huge for stone and gravel. And with forest products, and more specifically lumber, volume should remain elevated thanks to the bull market we're seeing in housing right now, and all the new housing starts. And don't forget about repairs and the remodeling that people all across the country are doing to their homes.

Premium shipping, that's going to be tied to auto. And yes, there's a well documented supply chain challenge right now impacting manufacturing. But demand for cars is healthhy right now. And that's going to be positive for finished vehicles and also auto parts.

Intermodal. That part of the business is absolutely on fire right now thanks to retail sales and the explosion of e-commerce. So you can see, UNP has exposure to so many different parts of the economy where activity should be strong in this year and into 2022. The company is guiding for volume growth of 4% to 6% in 2021. And I think that outlook will probably prove conservative as economic activity picks up later this year.

And inflation, that's not going to be much of a worry here. Because an improving demand environment and UNP's track record of being a reliable service product, that allows them to get the pricing dollars in excess of inflation.

But volumes, that's really just one part of the story here. Perhaps even a bigger part of the focus is something called precision railroading, and how its effective implementation is helping Union Pacific increase efficiencies and improve its operating ratio. Fourth quarter of 2020 was a record quarter, an all time quarterly record in terms of an adjusted operating ratio. It declined 410 basis points annually to 5.6%. That's great for profits. That's great for margins.

But the work here is not done. Volume growth, better pricing in excess of inflation, and at least $500 million in productivity savings all boil down to what management's targeting of an improvement to operating ratio of at least 150 basis points to 120 basis points. To excuse me, 150 to 200 basis points in 2021, which would give Union Pacific one of the best, if not the best ratios in the industry.

Now, the first quarter, expect a little bit of a hiccup to that story just because of the inclement weather experience in February. But the important thing is that management maintained its full year guide. So when I look at UNP, it's a story about volume growth this year, operating ratio improvement, accelerating economic activity, a shareholder friendly capital allocation policy. And it's growth at a reasonable price, with the stock trading at a low 20s forward multiple.

Plus, you have an analyst day to look forward to in may. So be on the lookout for that, because that's where management plans to outline even more future growth opportunities. So I know the stock's trading a little bit off its all time highs right now in the lower to mid $200s right now.

I believe it is down-- the last time I checked, slightly down today. But we have been adding to this position at slightly lower levels, especially when that Kansas City Southern merger hit. That was a great buying opportunity for us as well.

So I think this is one we can continue to like as we move throughout the year, and as volume growth picks up, and as economic activity picks up.

JIM CRAMER: You know, I'd like to add just the personal, again, because I think that you're not going to get a better analysis than you just heard about the company itself.

I think that Lance Fritz, who's been on a number of times, is a very under promise, over deliver guy. He gave a conference not that long ago, and he lowballed. And that caused panic. And we bought the panic. Why? Because I've known Lance for a long time. And Lance is the kind of guy who doesn't want to put out estimates unless he can beat them.

By the way, the port congestion? Once they clear anything, it goes to the Union Pacific, all right? And Union Pacific is the big winner if they finally unclog the ports.

And then a lot of people sold the stock because of the KSU acquisition, all right. KSU's going to be against them. I don't-- rails are basically-- they're a monopoly. And Union Pacific's not going to price cut.

I think that Union Pacific's got the best cargos. I think it's got the best leadership. Look, all the rails guys are really good, I should say, because I think that Squires at Norfolk Southern is really good, too.

But it has the best growth profile. And it's also the most loyal to its shareholders. It just continues to buy back stock. So this one is, I feel, because of Lance Fritz-- nothing's can't miss. But because of Lance Fritz, I really, really like this stock.

So you've got the bones. And that's the skin. This is a good one. And I'd buy it right here.

So let's take the first question. Jeff?

JEFF MARKS: Yep, and the first question comes from Jeff G. And Jeff asks, "What are your current thoughts on Walmart? What will get it moving again? Or do you think another retailer like Costco would be better here?"

Well, Jeff, I think both are pretty solid right here. Obviously they've had a nice move off of that great Larry Williams trade that Jim talked about earlier. But I would say our long term stance on Walmart's very positive.

Yes, investors took issue with management's tepid 2021 outlook, which included a big step up increase in capital expenditures. That's going to make 2021 an investment year. The market never likes to hear those two words.

However, I think all of that is going to support Walmart becoming an even stronger company in terms of longer term profitability, in terms of competing with Amazon online, and taking even more share over its brick and mortar competitors. So I was pretty shocked at how-- I think the stock fell-- it fell as low as the $130s. I was really surprised by that, because management is such a good steward of capital. They should have gotten the benefit of the doubt.

So we like them both here. Jim, you had something to add?

JIM CRAMER: No, I mean, just management certainly didn't get the benefit of the doubt. Kind of insane.

And by the way, I think Costco's trading as if it's going to end up going down today. I mean, it's unfathomable to me that you could have prominent executives at a company be shocked at how good their numbers are, but Wall Street is complacent and doesn't pick it.

Jeff, you and I both know, Costco's the best retailer in the world. It's better than Amazon. It's got the lowest prices. And it's got that card annuity, which is like the Amazon Prime annuity. But Jeff, I think you are surprised as I am that the stock's not up 5 or 6 on this 70% comp number.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, I mean, the comps were terrific. And it was going up against March, where you had a little bit of that. That was sort of the beginning of where you saw a lot of pandemic buying as well.

Next quarter, they're in great shape too. Because April, you may recall, April was flat from a comps perspective in 2020, because that's when you had the pandemic buying in March. And in April everyone already had all their goods. But yes, I mean, that membership, the income is so important for Costco.

What I would point out as well is that I've seen some reports with history suggesting we could see a membership fee announcement come as soon as 2022. I would expect that if they do do that to be very positive for the stock price, because that's pure profits right there. And if you're a Costco member, if you become one you're likely to become a member for life, because that value proposition is so strong.

And they are increasing warehouses still internationally, which is great, because that just means even more membership growth. So look, we upgraded this one at $335 in late Feb. And that's because the relative valuation was nearing trough levels. And this almost fell as low as $300 which is just down at that level it just assumed that none of the pandemic benefits that it enjoyed that they would retain. I just think that's simply wrong.

So $361, nice move off its recent lows. I still like this one long term.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, Costco's one of those, again, you have to go there. And now you want to go there. I think it's going to go to its all time high, and I like the stock.

All right, so Ryan S says, "What stock do you like better for the next 6 to 12 months? Honeywell or Boeing? OK, Ryan, Boeing.

I think that Boeing is in the sweet spot. They got the planes. I think the airlines are all worried. They're kind of like the car companies. Remember how the car companies didn't think there was going to be a boom, and they misjudged, and they didn't order the semiconductors? Believe me, the airlines are thinking the same thing right now.

Holy cow, what happens if everybody travels? We're going to need more planes. So the short term, Ryan S, you buy Boeing.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, Jim, I'm with you on that. And remember, with oil up at $60 a barrel and interest rates still at historic lows, yeah, the economics make sense for airlines to take out a loan, buy new jets, and then capture savings from all that fuel efficiency.

But with Honeywell too, yes, longer term these are still both really great companies. Honeywell, they have the best balance sheet in the industry. You have aviation rebounding. You have safety and productivity solutions business. That backlog the end of 2020, double of what they ended in 2019. So that's just going to support growth throughout 2021.

And it's a great play on a commercial building supercycle, as well, as people upgrade commercial buildings to newer tech to make them more efficient, more COVID complacent, if you will. So both great companies, absolutely.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, yeah, I had a fellow on, Waldron, who's in charge of their health care-- really in charge of their masks, which is a big business now.

And we were marveling together off camera that Honeywell has become very much of a health care company. And we also know that Honeywell's become very much as a software as a service for buildings company.

So I mean, Honeywell is rapidly changing its stripes. I think that health care is a fantastic business to be in. It's got great growth. And remember also, Honeywell has these vials made of aklar. So if we ever run out of glass vials, you can use those.

So again, it's their health business. darius adamczyk, who moved the company down there to Charlotte, is making so many changes. And I like the changes. I love the changes Dave Cote made. I'm loving Darius's changes just as much. So go ahead.

JEFF MARKS: Yep, next question comes from Adam in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Adam asks, "Is it time to lock in some profits in United Parcel Service, as it has been a battleground stock, similar to what the club did with Crown Castle. Or do you think the current tailwinds in the transport sector is going to keep moving the stock higher?"

I think this is an excellent question. And what I would say is you want to treat every situation differently. Though, generally speaking, I do like where you came from. Jim highlighted that battle that we experienced with CCI earlier. So I'm going to focus on UPS.

And what I would say is that with UPS, you have a big catalyst coming up in June at this investor day event. And that's going to be big, because that's where Carol Tome, she's going to articulate her big transformation initiative that's aimed to create a better, not bigger company, bring out efficiencies, improve margins, improve free cash flow.

So I think that's one reason why you don't want to shoot just because it gets back to your level. Because I think there is still a catalyst on the horizon. And we know last quarter was really that first turn where you saw revenues starting to grow faster than average daily volumes in the US. So I think there is still more to this UPS story.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, I completely agree. I think it's finally starting to get the respect. She's getting respect. That's a good point about that analyst meeting.

She hasn't articulated her strategy yet. Maybe that's part of the reason why it's not performing as well as we'd like. I have known Carol for many, many years. And she will have a very precise, good plan. And she's a good presenter. That's going to create some upgrades.

All right, next is from John M. in Dallas, John M. in Dallas, Texas. John writes, "I have gains in Linde PLC, LIN, and Union Pacific, UNP, but would still like to increase my position. How should I decide when to violate my basis?"

This is such a hard question. I can't tell you how many times we have said don't violate your basis, and then we did it. And then I've come to you, and I said, we violated our basis, and we regret it.

I would tell you that the only way you could ever-- look, if we go from a two to one on a stock that we've owned for a long time, that is a premise of violating basis. The only way you would ever violate basis is if something dramatic occurred at the company.

Now, I don't think there's going to be anything dramatic that occurs at Linde. The fact that they have green hydrogen is not going to impact-- it's not going to impact things. UPS, we just said that there's a conference. I think you hold.

So I mean, sometimes you just have to say, there's nothing new. And if there's nothing new, then there's no reason to sell, unless you're doing a disciplined sell because you feel that the market has moved so much. But that's the kind of selling I talked about at the top. That's a market wide sale because we're concerned that there's too much complacency.

And I don't feel either one of those stocks represents a danger in a big sell off. So we'd be inclined to buy them, probably on a day two or a day three.

Yeah, I'd agree. And the only other time where I would say maybe look for it is if it's like a quality on sale situation that we did most recently with a Salesforce when we added it in this most recent dip. Take Two Interactive we did. Alphabet as well.

And those first two were also positions we sold at much higher prices. So if you are trying to trade around a little bit, I would point that out as well.

All right, question number five comes from--

Let me just say, I want to tell you how we work like this. My writing partner Matt Horween came to me the other day and said, shouldn't you guys start thinking about Seattle Genetics. And I said, why? I mean, there's nothing really new about Seagen nothing.

But we had to then-- we are open minded. And Jeff, we both talked about it There is nothing really that's going to move the stock right now. But because it's come down a lot, it is incumbent upon us to examine the story and see if something's changed for the better.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, that's a great point too. And right, nothing's really changed. So usually in those situations that's where you'd want to go in there. It really depends on your conviction level. And if your conviction level is high in that long term story, like a Salesforce, like an Alphabet, then yes.

I don't know if our conviction is right there yet with the Seagen, especially with interest rates on the move. It's not really a profitable company yet, because they are still in that growth phase. But, as you said, we scrutinize. We scrutinize. And we scrutinize them. And if it's the right decision, then ultimately, we'll act.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, I mean, look, what do you really want there? You want have enough fundamentals and new drugs that could be approved so that Merck would come in and buy the rest of the company. They have a nice stake in it.

But one of the reasons why we were able to sell so effectively at $200 was people felt that was what was going to go on. But we were watching the fact that some of the trials weren't being well attended to because of COVID. My feeling is that those trials are life saving, so therefore you would brave COVID.

But it made me nervous. And as much as it is down a lot, I don't have the catalyst. But I will continue to look, because the stock is down some 68 points, whatever. That's reason enough to just look at the stock.

Oh, now, which one? Is this one yours or mine?

JEFF MARKS: Yep, let me take question number five. So "How will the upcoming Xilinx acquisition impact Advanced Micro Devices' overall growth and projected earnings per share?" So with the AMD, Xilinx deal, remember, the shareholders, they approved the deal yesterday. We're still waiting on a final word for regulators.

The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Remember, it was Marvell that received all the necessary approval to close the Inphi deal. And that transaction should close before the end of the month.

But as for what Xilinx means for AMD, remember, this is a highly complementary deal that will give AMD market leading exposure to high performance technologies in 5G communication, industrial and auto space, automotive. And it will also accelerate growth in the data center. It also expands the company's

TAM, or Total Addressable Market from about $80 billion to $110 billion for the combined company.

And for the impact on earnings per share, the deal is expected to be immediately accretive to margins, cash flow, and EPS. So that means estimates are going to be forced higher if and when the deal closes. I've seen estimates go as high as about around $5.50 in 2025. So that gives you some type of indication on where earnings can go.

Look, you put a 30 multiple on a $5.50 number, and we're talking about a stock that's materially higher from here. So I think if this deal closes, that's going to be huge for AMD.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, and remember, Pat Gelsinger's out there, CEO of Intel, saying that, look, we're going to catch up to AMD. We're going to take back everything that we lost. The customers love us.

And I keep saying AMD's a moving target. Xilinx is not as well run as what AMD does. But think about that diversification. You won't compare it to Intel anymore.

You might end up comparing it to any number of companies. Texas Instruments might end up comparing it Broadcom. In other words, we're out of the Intel versus AMD conundrum, and into something where you're buying a company where the cohort is a lot easier to do, to beat. They'll beat them.

All right, here's Roland O writes, "Should I hold my position in Eli Lilly, or sell some as it seems to be slowly moving lower?" Well, I do think it's bottomed. Dangerous words, right? I think it has bottomed.

And I feel like that I'm waiting for some insider buying. And that would be terrific. I don't think that Lilly gives you anything on Alzheimer's if you buy the stock at $183. I think you could have been at $183 by now without any Alzheimer's. So I would hesitate to sell it. I would definitely buy it.

JEFF MARKS: Yep, and let's remember, these are really great operators too. Eli Lilly has delivered nearly 1,000 basis points of operating margin expansion since 2016. And management believes there's even more room for margins to grow. They're targeting margins expanding to the mid to high 30s by 2025.

And that's continuing to increase research and development productivity. So just great, great operators of a business. Next question comes from Domenick A. And Domenick A. asks, "I have a very low average cost basis in Ford. Do you think it's worthwhile to buy even up here?"

And Domenick, I would say if you're already in the name, I would lean towards waiting for a pullback closer to $12 flat. I still like-- there's a chip shortage right now. That's obviously getting a lot of attention.

But what I would say about Ford is not even talking about the great stuff they're doing with EVs right now. What you got to love about Ford is they're restructuring unprofitable regions. And they're focusing on the brands that sell best. So between 2016 and 2020, Ford allocated about 38% of its capital to its strongest name plate. So that's going to be the Mustang, F-series, Explorer, Bronco.

But looking forward through 2025, Ford's planning to allocate nearly 75% of that capital to support its strongest brands. So they're not really selling the car models that just don't really do well. I like that a lot. And when you couple that with getting restructuring out of these unprofitable regions and improving profitability all over the place, that's how you build a sustainable, long term company.

So the EVs, that's all great too. But I think that's why there's a lot to like in this story. But again, I would

probably lean closer towards 12.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, look, the stock is up because of the commitment by Jim Farley to no longer make cars everywhere, which is what Ford did. That was a vision of Henry Ford. That was the way. It was supposed to be a world wide car maker.

Now, he says I'm not going to make cars where we don't money. It's a radical change. And I think we're going to see it. It'll be [INAUDIBLE] by the second quarter. But I think you'll see it.

I think the EV F-150 is one of the most exciting products around. Used car values are up. So therefore, that means that Ford [INAUDIBLE] is going to be a great source of profit. No one's thinking of that.

And it's had such a big run. I understand why people would sell. It also is millennial proof, by the way. It's always one of the top 10 in Robinhood.

All right, "Norton LifeLock struggled," says Chad K. from Michigan, "But it's off those lows. Do you think it's ready to run? Or is this the level where it stops again, making now the time to cash in on small gains?"

Oh, god, when is this thing going to move? I say that to myself. And I'm so afraid that the moment-- that on Waste Management myself here, because I think the company is doing quite well. But there's no excitement. It's [INAUDIBLE]. No one talks about it.

I still believe that it's got a good brand name. I believe that the stock is incredibly inexpensive. But I also know that I cannot blame anyone for wanting to sell it. Because it is $21, $22, $21, $22. And that is not what people want. But I'm not selling it because it's just too darn cheap.

JEFF MARKS: Yeah, and because it's so cheap, that's why I was actually surprised NLOK, I thought it would have acted better with rates moving up, and with some value tech names working. Because its multiple is low. It's in the low teens. And it's a solid free cash flow generator. So when you hear people talking about long duration assets, this isn't a long duration asset, because they are generating so much free cash flow today.

With the upcoming reported quarter what I do want to point out is that you should see some pickup in revenue growth now that the Avira acquisition has closed. And you will have that. You'll have a benefit of that.

And then also anything related to consolidation. It's going to be positive for them. And they have the balance sheet to absolutely do it. And they're going to bring in even more cash later this year through some more real estate sales.

So they can pursue M&A. They can buy back stock. There's just a capital return story here, hidden here. I just think, as you preached, patience.

All right, next question comes from Eric C. in Singapore. "I've invested in several reopening stocks and the returns have been great so far. But I would like to own some of the big techs, like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft as part of my portfolio diversification. I've kept some dry powder for these stocks. But given the impending rise in interest rates, when do you see a good time to pull the trigger?"

And Eric, excellent job investing in some of these reopening stocks, because I think that's where some of the best gains have been over the past few months. What I would say with tech is, look, you can always start small, put some on, and see if they come in further, right?

We were talking about a bullpen name just before this, PayPal. And PayPal is up for the last seven sessions. So is that something where you really just want to come in and buy something up seven straight days just for a portfolio diversification reason? I don't think that's good enough.

So look, you can always start small. And when you get that pullback, that's when you can build. But what I do want to say, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft all are great companies, very profitable, which is important right now. Because those great earnings today will be more resilient to rises in the interest rates. And that's why you're seeing Microsoft at all time highs right now. Facebook has been acting very strong. And Apple, as Jim pointed out, off its lows, well off that $110 price where it seemed like everyone just wanted to throw away the stock.

JIM CRAMER: Yeah, up $1.90. That's a lot today. It's been a straight shot, up $10. Again, own it. Don't trade it. Would I come in and buy it right here, right now? Not up $1.80. I just don't like to chase.

All right, now, last question. "I have been building a fairly sizable position in Boeing based in part on potential China orders. Should we have pairing our positions that have China exposure?" Yeah, something like Nike, Boeing. "In response to Olympic boycott murmurings and the possible Chinese retaliation measures?"

Well, Morris S. in Olympia, I think that we got some news that they're not going to boycott. But more importantly, though, I mean, I think that Boeing should not be bought on China orders.

I think that the well-- I don't say the well's spoiled. I'm just saying that the orders won't be that big. They're going to place orders. They need planes. But when you're putting Coast Guard between straits in Thailand and China, and you're trying to tighten the screws on them for their labor and for what they're doing to a particular challenged Muslim group, you don't get a pretty picture. You don't get a picture where our president is going to say, hey, come on, let's go guarantee some money from Boeing.

It's going to be the opposite. It's going to be very, very tough. But I like Boeing. And I expect good things. I expect good things, because I think the airline business is so, so strapped for new planes to make all the money back that they lost. It's an oddity.

All right, we've gone on way too long. We've gone on past my lunchtime. But let me just say once again, you are valued. We care tremendously about you. The work that we put in, Jeff, and Zev, and me is well in excess of what I put in even as a hedge fund manager, because it's three people doing the work.

And I am thrilled that you're in. I'm going to leave you with one thought. I do go home every night and think about the worst position. I do go home and think about Lilly. My grandmother's name was Lilly. It's like Lilly. It just pops up.

I saw a picture of her. I said, ugh, Lilly. I obsess over it. That's what a good manager does. You look for reasons either to sell it or to buy it. And if you have reasons to buy and it's this low, you buy it.

And if the company is selling at $180 and it doesn't get any credit for what it's doing on maybe what is the biggest drug of all time, you buy it. It's what I care about. It's what I do for a living. It's what we do. And you know why we do it? We do it for you.

Thank you for going, coming to our April call. Plenty of stuff we're going to slice and dice from the call. I'm sorry we went so long. But Jeff and I thank you for being members of the club.