KATHERINE ROSS: Welcome to the May Action Alerts Plus monthly call. I'm Katherine Ross, and I'm joined today by Bob Lang and Chris Versace. Before we dive into every holding in the portfolio, April was a very tough month for investors with the NASDAQ and the S&P posting their worst month since March 2020. Now, obviously, with that volatility that we've already seen, there are questions about what's next and what we all know about, saying sell in May and go away. So with that, Chris, that leads me into, is it time to shore up some cash if you haven't already?
CHRIS VERSACE: Well, I'm giggling a little bit, Katherine, because we did that just this morning, where we tipped up over 20%. And I think you're right. I mean, there are 2 reasons why we made that move this morning, but the second one that relates to your question is, look, we know that the Fed-- we have the Fed meeting coming up later today. We are seeing increased sanctions that are being placed on Russia, where the eurozone is likely to move away from crude. That's going to help accelerate inflationary pressures and keep them, obviously, at elevated levels, probably for longer than people were originally expecting.
That means, more likely than not, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. But at the same time, we've also got increasing dollar headwinds, continued supply chain constraints, and the ongoing impact from the war and embargo on Russia. So all in all, I think what you're seeing emerge in the portfolio is an increasingly defensive stance, and it's one of the ones that will continue to look for as we go through the next couple of months because those issues that I just rattled off aren't likely to fade any time soon. So more defensive names in nature, probably some more dividend payers, and companies with more clear prospects for growth in the near term. That's what we'll be leaning into, again, as we look to become increasingly defensive in the near term.
KATHERINE ROSS: Goldman CEO, David Solomon, has said that he's concerned about the Fed and the impact that they could have on whether or not the US faces a recession. Bob, obviously we're going to hear from the Fed later today, but if big banks are concerned, how worried should members be about the market?
BOB LANG: Well, I don't think the member should be-- if we have a long term perspective like we do, we're thinking 12 to 18, 24 months out. I think when you go out to the outlier to 24, maybe even 2025, I don't think there's going to be too much to worry about. I think we're in good strong companies with solid earnings. We're just in one of those time frames right now where the Fed has a job to do, and one of the 2 mandates, of course, is price stability. The other one being supporting full employment. These are 2 mandates that were instituted by Congress many years ago. So what the Fed needs to do is get a hold of what's happening in the economy with unstable prices right now.
We see it everywhere. You go out to a restaurant, which you go out for 2 people. What might have cost $40 to $50 for a meal is now costing you $90. You go to the grocery store. You see it everywhere in the shopping malls, even shopping online. Prices are starting to rise. We heard that with Amazon last week. So these are things that the Fed needs to address and address quickly, and I think the Goldman Sachs CEO is correct in saying that, if they don't arrest the problem very quickly, we're going to have some bigger issues down the road. And regardless of whether the economy shifts into a recession or not, the Fed shouldn't care about this that at all right now. Higher inflation is going to be a huge bugaboo for the economy down the road if they don't arrest the problem. So even if we do have a recession, if you look back in 40 plus years ago, when we had huge rises in the Fed funds rate, we had twin recessions. But still, that managed to break the back of inflation. I think that's the path that the Fed needs to follow this time around as well.
KATHERINE ROSS: It's time to go stock by stock, and I want to start with Skyworks, which you sold out of this morning. Now, Chris, I know that you are a strong believer in the fundamentals here. It was one of your conviction buys last year, so talk us through this exit.
CHRIS VERSACE: Sure. So when things change we have to take action. It's really as simple as that, Katherine. Thus far, this earnings season, we've heard very bullish comments on smartphone related chipsets, particularly from Qualcomm, with significant growth year over year. And when we parse the Skyworks results last night, to be candid with you and with members, the results were underwhelming. They were not up as strong as Qualcomm, anywhere close. And remember, the key thesis for us was on the rising dollar content for 5G device compared to 4G, compared to 3G. So it was a very big disappointment, and that fell through in with their guidance as well.
So as we parse the comments that we had, the bigger concern that we have for the company is that it's losing share. Now, that is a big problem. That's a real thesis changer for us. And while we could have maybe downgraded the name to a 2, again, my comment from a few minutes ago is, we want to put the portfolio in a more defensive stance. Hence the sharp move that we did. And I understand that we're going to take some heat from it, but in our view, it's the right thing to do ahead of what we're likely to see, and it's just a reminder that this is not, as we say, crock-pot investing. We need to continually read the data as we get it, updating our investment theses along the way. We've done that before with Abbott, with Boeing, with PayPal, with WIN, and a whole host of others. And in hindsight, it proved to be the right move. I think that's going to be the case again here.
KATHERINE ROSS: I've gotten emails from members where they're concerned, and they're comparing this move to Blackberry and Starbucks, which were also sold at losses. I'm wondering if you don't mind walking us through how you plan to really prevent this from happening again.
CHRIS VERSACE: Well, I would love to say that it's never going to happen again, Katherine, but that would be misleading. It's going to happen, and there are times when the data simply moves against us, and we have to course correct. What we can do is simply be vigilant. What we can also do is implement tighter safeguards when positions do move against us. That, we can be better on, and I think you'll see us do that going forward.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, can you give us an overview of the technicals? How did they play into the selling of this position?
BOB LANG: Well, I'd drawn the line in the sand on the weekly chart, around $110 to $111, and it fell right to that point this morning. And we exited around that point. Down below, we see quite a bit of a bigger move, down to the $95 area, where it has some more support. So Chris and I talked about it and said, look, you know what? We'd rather just cut bait here, move on to the next trade idea, take our lumps, and then move on. It happens to the best of us, but as I've said in the past, it's OK to be wrong, but it's not OK to stay wrong. So if you're going to stay wrong with the trade, you need to keep coming up with excuses to stay with that trade longer than you really should and really need to. So Chris and I-- we talked it over, and decided, this is the time to move on. And we did. If it's got some more prices down below, we may come back to it down the road. But for right now, it's a no touch.
KATHERINE ROSS: On the other end of the spectrum, we do have AMD, which did beat earnings expectations, and Lisa Su expressed optimism on the call. Can this earnings report really keep the sellers that we've seen recently in the same at bay?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think it will. And remember, it really solidified what we heard over the last couple of days, regarding the strength in high performance computing, data center, and the like. So to me, it really just crystallized everything that we've been hearing. Again, another reason why we really need to pay attention, especially during earnings season with the latest and greatest data commentary from customers, competitors, suppliers, that really helps zero in on why we own a particular stock.
So I think what the company had to say was great. They raised guidance for 2022. There's going to, obviously, be some margin benefit from Xilinx. So all in all, I would say it was exactly what we were looking for, but to answer your question, Katherine, even a great report like that isn't necessarily giving the lift that it would have 6, 8, 9, 12 months ago, because of the market mood. But we'll continue to stay patient with the name.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, what kind of upside do you see with this name?
BOB LANG: Well, I really wanted to see the stock make a move and stay above the 20 day moving average. It's flirting with it right now. After gapping up this morning, 20 day moving average comes in at about $93 and $93.25. I'd like to see it stabilize above that area for right now, and then make a move on today's high. We did encounter some selling early on this morning, and of course, a lot of nervousness going on with the Fed meeting later on today. Not many people want to stay long, but above that $98, $99 level would be nice to get up a little higher high and a higher low on the chart. So it's a little constructive right here, but it still needs a little bit of work.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's go to Applied Materials. And Bob, I'll start with you on this one. What's your plan here?
BOB LANG: So again, here's a stock that came down to some good support levels on the weekly chart. Comes around about $108 to $111, and it's just sort of going sideways at this point in time. We got an earnings report coming out, I believe, in a week on Applied Materials, so the competitors like KLA, Lam Research, and ASML [inaudible] came out with real strong reports that it came down a little bit. This group, semiconductor and capital equipment group, have been challenged for the better part of 2022, since the start of the year. So I'm expecting good numbers from Applied Materials. And if we can hold above that $110, $111 area, I expect to see some buyers step in and take the stock up back up to $120, $125.
KATHERINE ROSS: Chris, in the weekly roundup, you said that the risk reward scale was skewed strongly to the reward side, but the stock is down 27% year to date. Following Bob's comments, what can push the stock higher?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think that the robust earnings can continue to push that higher, rising backlog, which is I expect that we'll see. Remember, there's a fair amount of reshoring going on for semiconductors, not just in the US, but elsewhere as well. And remember, too, the longer term drivers of, everything from 5G to even EVs, which have roughly twice the semiconductor content of a regular car-- all of this is going to continue to push the industry up against capacity, and that keeps me, in particular, bullish longer term.
KATHERINE ROSS: Our next talk is Marvell. And feeding into this, what we've already been talking about with earnings reports, Chris, what do you expect to hear from this company when it reports on May 26th?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think we're going to see a report very similar to what we saw from AMD, which is upbeat guidance, a clear beat, as well as favorable commentary. Consider what we've collected already thus far. Again, going back to what we heard from Microsoft, Facebook, and Google about cloud spend, data center spend. We take a look at what NXP Semiconductors said about communications infrastructure, and even comments out of Qualcomm and others about automotive chip demand. All of that is extremely positive for Marvell. And I think, again that's going to paint a good, solid picture for it between now and the end of the year.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, what does the chart look like ahead of these earnings?
BOB LANG: Kind of like Marvell right here, and it's fallen to an area of support around the October lows. Let's call it $56 to $58. It's currently-- it was up earlier this morning, thanks to AMD, but it's pulled back a bit. And again, the market's volatile right now, and even good, strong quality names like Marvell are not going to go untouched when it comes to selling off in the market. So I do like this area. $56, $58 would be a good spot for subscribers to add to their positions.
KATHERINE ROSS: Our next talk is NVIDIA. Morgan Stanley urged investors, be careful about NVIDIA, due to the slowdown in the gaming industry and the current environment. So with that in mind, what's your approach for the next six months Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: Continuing-- I mean, this is going to be a broken record for this call, I think, but it's going to be continuing to check the data, update our investment thesis as we go through. So in the case of NVIDIA, what did we hear? Again, robust data center. Even Intel came out and said that gaming and graphics is extremely strong playing, right into NVIDIA. I think when all is said and done, we're going to see that both AMD and NVIDIA have done what they've been doing the last several quarters, which is continuing to eat Intel's lunch. And we would much rather be positioned with those 2 than say, Intel.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, it's managed to stay-- it's below the 50 day moving average, but it's stayed above the 200 day moving average, so what does the chart tell you?
BOB LANG: Yeah, so NVIDIA, it fell pretty sharply after the last earnings report. Had a nice rally in March on some really strong turnover, but more recently, fell to a good support zone. I looked at on a weekly chart about $180 to $190 as a good support zone. Slightly above there right now, about $189. I'd like to see the stock go sideways, consolidate a little bit of this area, and then take off to the upside.
If you think there's got some room up to the 100 day moving average, which comes in at about $245. That'd be a really nice move from there. So I suspect, if subscribers are a little light on the name, they need to add a little bit more in terms of exposure for this group. NVIDIA, high class, first class, world class name would probably be the one to buy.
KATHERINE ROSS: All right. Now we can get out of the chip stocks and start talking about some other ones in the portfolio, and that first stock up is AMN. It was initially bought as part of the aging of the population thesis, with an inflationary environment that could be deterring consumers from spending and COVID waning, at least in some places. How does this thesis work for you in this current market environment, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: The last few days, there's been some pressure on the stock. I think some of those questions have come about, Katherine. And we shared our comments with members that, after gathering and reading through the earnings conference calls and transcripts from a lot of the hospital companies, that expectation for that fall off in contract labor isn't happening anywhere near as fast as people thought. And candidly, I think a lot of people thought it was going to be over really in the current quarter, but what we're seeing is 2 things. 1, it's not going to roll off anywhere near as fast, like I said. Probably not even hit pre-pandemic levels until sometime either late 2022, possibly 2023.
But at the same time, that nursing shortage is having hospitals continue to keep contract labor because they simply-- COVID aside, simply can't keep pace with the number of procedures and other things that they have to do. So I think we've got a lot of legs here in this name. And again, longer term, as we age, we are going to continue to need more and more nursing services, more nurses, and even more doctors. That's right into the wheelhouse for AMN because there is no end, I hate to say it, where nursing shortage in sight. Not this year, not next year, not the year after.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, do you think that we've seen the pressure play out in this stock? Can we see more upside now? What does the chart tell you?
BOB LANG: Well, for the past 4 or 5 months, there seems to be a buyer lurking around the $90 area. And 3 or 4 different occasions, we've seen the stock fall down there, and all of a sudden, some buyers come in and start picking up the stock. So that that's definitely a bullish signal for me. When the stock drops to that level, it's time to scoop up shares. And it did a couple of days ago. There was some news, someone had a negative hit piece on it, and I suggested in our call, and then also wrote a chart up of it-- if it dropped below $90, or dropped around that $90 level, time to scoop it up. And we already had almost a full position, and we did add some more around that level on Monday. So I certainly think that if it does drop again around that $90 level, if you're light on the stock, subscribers, please take a shot at this one and add some more to your portfolio.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's go to Airbnb next. Between the earnings call and the report, Airbnb looks good, but could inflationary pressures and other economic headwinds have an impact in the shorter term, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: In the short term, I don't think so. What we're seeing is robust travel bookings, not just from Airbnb, but pretty much across the board. We heard it from competitor Vrbo. That's a part of Expedia. All indications that the summer travel season will be robust, and we haven't seen any slowdown in TSA data. So I don't think the near term is going to be an issue. And I would counter by saying that for folks that go on vacation, if you're a family of 4 or 5, or you're going in a group vacation, getting a home through Airbnb is going to be probably as affordable as you can get comparing to booking 2, 3 4 hotel rooms. Trust me, I know this from experience. That is a big pain in the wallet, so to speak. So I don't think that's going to be the case, Katherine, at all.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, with this stock coming back down to Earth after earnings beat, would you look to add some shares, perhaps if it goes negative today?
BOB LANG: I definitely would. I think this is a great name to add to the portfolio. But on a chart basis, I would tell you that it's the Bulls fighting the Bears out, and in terms of a pattern that I follow quite closely. It's called the head and shoulders pattern. So we have the head and shoulders pattern, which is bearish. We have the inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish. So we have both those patterns showing up on the chart right now. So who's going to win? I don't know.
We'll have to see. Again, in a bearish environment. Maybe you want to give the leg up to the Bears at this point in time. But for some reason, this stock seems to really catch buyers when it pulls down. It's down a little bit this morning from the highs of the session, and I think it's just more just a reminder that the type of market that we're in right now. And even the strongest names that post really strong earnings may just be a use of funds and not a source of funds. So I would say on a dip, Airbnb is one of the best names to add.
KATHERINE ROSS: SH is up next. What is your recommended allocation of SH, Chris, and how should members use this position?
CHRIS VERSACE: So this is a tactical position for us. It's not something that we're going to get very outsized in it. We used about 1%, and it's grown to its current position size as the market pressures. The reasons why we added SH to begin with kind of unfolded. Some members could be a little more aggressive. I would say it has to balance with your overall level of cash, as well as your level of risk tolerance.
If we do get a market rally, obviously SH is going to move against us. But from our perspective, when we combine the current cash position along with the existing position in SH, where we are today, in particular, ahead of the Fed meeting. And again, more likely than not, a increasingly hawkish Fed and growing number of comments talking about the cost side of the equation. As we go through earnings season, we think that we're probably going to hold SH near term. Call it the next couple of weeks, and then we'll revisit.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, is it too late to start a position in SH?
BOB LANG: No. No, it's not. And I'll tell you, there are quite a few different ways to reduce volatility in a portfolio, and this is probably one of the better ways to do it. You can certainly do it with options. But since we're not doing options in the portfolio, we have to look at other ways to do it. You can short stocks, but that's not a practical way to go, so I think these inverse ETFs are an ideal and excellent way to get some protection, reduce volatility in a portfolio.
And when the markets were going down last week, we were benefiting-- not benefiting on our long positions, of course, but benefiting by having this protection in place that you can have on at any time. So in an environment like this, I think it's absolutely vital and critical to always have some protection on, whether it's a high level of cash at Chris just mentioned, or having some inverse ETF like the SH, or some other vehicle. There are plenty out there. The NASDAQ, the Dow Industrials, the Russell, just to name a few. But I certainly think that, at any time, you can also add some of this protection. It's always good.
KATHERINE ROSS: CIBR is a fairly new position for the portfolio, and it leads me to wonder, Chris, if the cybersecurity sector is a bit of a safe haven of sorts for investors trying to find some play that works in this market.
CHRIS VERSACE: That's an interesting way to phrase it as a safe way. I would say it a little differently. That I think cybersecurity is effectively insurance for the increasingly digital age that we live in. Every person, every company needs to be on guard as they put more of their life, their assets, into the digital world, whether it's social media, the cloud, what have you. And the thing is, we know that the vulnerability points are only going to continue to grow. So yes, I think that everybody should have at least some exposure to cybersecurity. In the case of the AAP portfolio, we want to take a rounded approach. That's why we replaced Norton LifeLock with the CIBR ETF.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, CIBR's 200 day moving average is negative. What does this tell you about the ETF?
BOB LANG: Yeah, so the ETF has been trading in a pretty solid range of about, let's call it $43 to about $54, almost $55 for the past several months. It broke that level. I want to say, back in December, and it should have been trading in that range for a while. So we're heading towards the lower end of the range right now, and if anybody is looking to add some of the security, I'd say this is a-- wait a little bit longer, might get a little bit lower, move down to the mid 40s. We're about $45 right now. It's a little lower to portion of the mid-40s. $43, $44 would probably be an excellent buy point to add the CIBR.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's go to Costco next. How can members use Costco to their advantage as we continue to try to survive this bearish environment, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think it's a-- I hesitate to use the word safe haven, but I think it is one of the safer places that we can be because of all the inflationary pressures that we've been seeing. And as we talked at the top, they're going to remain at elevated levels for probably far longer than people are thinking. It's just a place where people are going to go, whether it's in person or online, to stretch their disposable spending dollars. And what separates it from other retailers-- we've talked about this, but it bears repeating-- is that member business model. That as they continue to expand their footprint, it drives additional sign ups, which drives that all important very, very high margin membership revenue stream. And again, it makes it a big differentiator to almost every other retailer out there.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, you know it's a tough market when even Costco is facing volatility. Are you concerned at all about the technical picture of the stock?
BOB LANG: Not really. Not really too concerned about it. It had a monster run in late February, all the way up to the early part of April, and we did take some money off the table at that time, and it's pulled down a bit, but really, much like AMN as I mentioned earlier, this stock seems to have found some buyers around the $520, $525 area in the last couple of days. It would try to breach that level, and some buyers stepped up and said, no, not today. And they started buying some of the stock. And it may consolidate over here between $520 to $540 for the next couple of weeks. I'd like to see that happen and see the stock hold that $520, $525 level, and not penetrate that. There is some support down to the 200 day moving average. Let's call it about $508 to $506. But I think that this level right here is an area that is likely to hold.
KATHERINE ROSS: Walmart is up next. At least in this environment, Chris, I'm wondering if Walmart is categorized as an own it, don't trade it stock, or do they need to prove themselves during earnings?
CHRIS VERSACE: I-- Wow. That is a-- Yes, I would say all of that. I think they do need to prove to themselves that they are winning consumer share. All points are that they will. But if that is confirmed, we're going to want to hold it. Now, having said that, we did sell some Walmart several weeks ago, and it has traded off. This could be something that, as we continue to see inflationary pressures continue, this very well could be a position that we look to revisit. And we would certainly say to members, if you're underweight Walmart, you should be scaling into that.
KATHERINE ROSS: Do you agree with that, Bob, since the stock is a little less than $10 from its 52 week high?
BOB LANG: Yeah, I like Walmart here. And it's pulled into some support levels right now. A little below here is the 50 day moving average, which probably where it's going to get a little bit more support. That comes in at about $148. So maybe about $2 or $3, $4 lower from here, but I do like Walmart on the pullbacks over here. The stock is very, very strong. It had an incredible run, much like Costco from the end of February to about the middle of April. Again, a little bit of a pullback is not unreasonable, and it's certainly not unheard of to see some money being taken off the table, but I do think that these pullbacks are great opportunities to add to Walmart.
KATHERINE ROSS: McCormack is up next. And I'm not jerking your chain here, Chris, but a member did email in asking if they should swap Walmart for McCormack if they're trying to maintain less stocks than the 28 currently owned by AAP?
CHRIS VERSACE: So, for the average person, I would say, yes. Owning 28 can be quite daunting. It's a tough call. I've known the McCormick business for a long, long time, and I think it's a wonderful one. They're an excellent company. Not only do they continue to bring out new products-- I think we were joking about the expanding line of Old Bay Hot Sauce and some others before we were taping-- but they also are fantastic at acquiring businesses, wringing costs out, and expanding that line.
Another case in point, I think we pointed it out in last week's roundup, what they did with French's Mustard, and how they're bringing out a whole slew of new products under that product line. So if push came to shove, what I like about McCormick is it's a dividend dynamo. It hasn't moved lately quite the way that we've seen Walmart, and it does address a real big pain for people, which is going to be food inflation. You're going to eat at home. You're going to want good food. I think it's a good way to go, but make no mistake, Katherine. That is a tough, tough choice.
KATHERINE ROSS: All right. Bob, I see that McCormick is about 2%, built out about 2%. Would you consider adding more, or are you ready to hold and see with this name here?
BOB LANG: This is-- actually, this stock has dropped to a nice level here, 100 day moving average coming in at around $97 to $97.50 the last few days. It was rather weak. Actually, the last couple of days has been going flat. But the prior days on Friday and Monday, when the markets were getting hammered, the stock was also getting hit. But now, it's got support of that 100 day moving average. So I'd say this would be a good time to back up the truck and add some shares of McCormick right here. I think this is a good spot to get in. The last couple of times, it penetrated or touched the 100 day moving average. It was a great buying opportunity. Let's call it back in late March, and then prior to that, back in November, the stock went on a huge run right after that. So this would be a good spot to get on board.
KATHERINE ROSS: I think 30 minutes might be a record for you for waiting to say back up the truck. Let's move on to CBOE next. And finally, I get to ask this question. Hey, Chris. Why is CBOE a 2?
CHRIS VERSACE: Why is CBOE a 2? Well, when we first did our analysis on it, there were certain bandwidths that we identified, in terms of upside and potential downside. And while we added the shares, we continue to note that there was skewed, if you will, downsides. So we wanted to really walk our way into this position, not run. But over the last week or so, CBOE shares have come down. And I think, to use some language you quoted me on earlier, Katherine, the risk to reward is skewing increasingly towards reward.
And remember, the reason why we like this name is, given the volatile market, we're going to continue to see elevated options levels. We think that's certainly going to play true, but also, too, they continue to increase their fee based business. We also like that. I do think-- I'll have to confer with my partner Bob on this, but this could be one that we see the portfolio taking some action in sooner than later.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's have that conference out right here, right now. Bob, do you think you're going to be taking action here?
BOB LANG: Yeah, I think we could be seeing us adding a little bit more CBOE here in the next couple of days. Certainly, the stock has been a little volatile here, between the $110 and $120 range. It did hit $120, $121 in the middle of the month of April, and it's come down a little bit. But again, it's another stock, much like Costco and AMN. There seems to be somebody coming in there stepping in and buying the stock when it gets down to that $111, $112 area, where it's at right now. So this is one of the better brands out there in markets and trading. So the CBOE, down here, $110, $112, another area, where would be a great spot for subscribers to pick up shares.
KATHERINE ROSS: OK, let's go to our original own it, don't trade it stock. And that would be Apple. Apple did poach a Ford executive to focus on its electric car push, which pretty much solidifies the years long rumors about Apple's interest in the space. But Chris, what does this tell you about the long term horizon on this company?
CHRIS VERSACE: I'm sorry, Katherine, Apple and EVs? Oh, Project Titan, yes. The worst kept secret in Silicon Valley. Yes, yes, yes. What does that move tell us? Look. Apple is one of those companies that, when we trace back its history, they have really done a remarkable job at continuing to reinvent itself through its product line. Originally starting in PCs, then the iPod, then the iPhone, branching off into services. Of course, there was Apple Watch and wearables.
There's the much discussed, often touted set of AR, AV glasses at some point, and these other products. So it tells us that Apple is going to continue to evolve as we continue to move into what we refer as the increasing digital lifestyle. And I think that's reasons to get excited, but if you remember, too, that in the past, there have been more rumors at certain times about their car efforts or about the AR, VR goggles. And sometimes that can push the stock ahead of itself.
We have to stop and ask questions such as, what are the price points for these? What's the user experience like? What's the competitive landscape looking like? And how does Apple differentiate itself? They've historically done a very good job of that, but to circle back to your question, it tells us that Apple is going to continue to reinvent itself and push forward, and that is something that we like.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's talk about another stock that has been busy reinventing itself, and that is Ford. Now, last year, Ford did ink a deal with GlobalFoundries to boost chip supply amidst the shortage. Chris, did anything really come from that deal? And if not, how are you feeling about Ford delivering long term?
CHRIS VERSACE: So I'm more focused on-- Ford has done a number of initiatives to solidify its-- what we're calling its transformation. And like we said earlier, talking about Skyworks, we want to make sure that things are tracking. When we dug into the March quarter results, what did we see? Yeah, volumes were down. No surprise, but we saw that profits were up year over year. Margins were up year over year, and sequentially as well. So that tells us that the company is really on path with what it's doing.
So are we a little frustrated with the share price and the fact that these chip shortages continue to linger? Yes, but on a positive note, Ford came out earlier today, and its April sales were not as bad as feared. And when we sit back and hear comments from others supplying chips into the auto space, they're seeing higher chip sales quarter after quarter, down the road. That tells us that this particular headwind is, slowly but surely, going to abate. And as that happens, I think the real power of the Ford transformation will start to take hold. And where we're inclined to wait patiently, as long as the data that we get continues to confirm that Ford is on that road.
KATHERINE ROSS: So let's put aside the fundamentals here, Bob, and dig into the technicals. With this chart showing the price continuing to decline, what do you need to see from this company?
BOB LANG: Well, I want to see this stock stabilize around this area, around between $13.50 and $14.50, 15 bucks, $13.50 to $15. So this is an area where Ford took off to the upside, back in October of 2021, and it made a huge run in October, went flat sideways for a little while, and then spiked up at the beginning of 2022. So this is an area where I'd like to see buyers start stepping in. A little sideways action wouldn't be all that bad for Ford, again, between $13.50 to $15, and get a little sideways action 4 to 6 weeks, something like that. We might have a signal there for another leg up. So this area right here would be good to possibly even add some shares if you're a little bit light.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's go to ChargePoint next. Now, we've discussed this name from a number of angles, but one angle that I think we didn't get into, Chris, was why did this name stand out to you in the charging space?
CHRIS VERSACE: Oh, as opposed to EVgo, Blink, and some of the others? It's really pretty simple. When we took a look at it, it is the biggest company out there on the charging front. It's a number of good partnerships, and it has shored up its balance sheet so that it has the firepower to continue to deliver as the infrastructure bill allows the build out of charging stations.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, last month ChargePoint was hitting about $20 a share. Now we're down to about $13. Are you concerned about the technicals with the 200 day negative?
BOB LANG: No, I'm not too worried about it. We came back down in March to about $12, $11, and then made a monstrous run up to $20, so it was almost a 100% move for the stock in about a month, a little over a month and a half. So no, I'm not too worried about it right now. I like the stock down here in the $13, $14 area. Again, I'd like to see it consolidate a little bit and make a run towards $15.50 to $16. We get above there, which would be about the 100 day moving average.
We'll make a run at the 200-day moving average. But again, like Chris said, this is more of a longer term play. We're not-- we have a much longer term horizon for names like ChargePoint. We're talking at least a couple of years down the road. We do have an area from earlier this year where the stock did get up into the mid to high 20s, and that would be a nicer area to get into. But I'll tell you, right down here, it would be a good spot to add some shares if you wanted to.
KATHERINE ROSS: What if members are concerned, Bob? What's your advice for them?
BOB LANG: Well, if members are-- if they still have some of these shares, we don't have a full position yet in ChargePoint. Listen, add some more shares down here. $13 is a good spot. We've had some good support here at this area, and continue to add more shares of the name. Again, if we loosen up a little bit more on other positions, we may add a little bit more ChargePoint. But I like this right down here.
KATHERINE ROSS: Our next stock is Amazon. You downgraded Amazon to a 2 after that earnings report. Interestingly enough, I noticed that hasn't actually been bought by AAP since about 2018. So Chris, why not add some after this weakness?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think we need to get through the reasons for the downgrade first and foremost, which was a little bit of weaker revenue expectations, but really, the cost side was really the big swing factor for us. And we know, in the past, some of these periods of quote, "Big investment," from Amazon have created great buying opportunities. But usually, you have to let that get digested.
But we also want to see, is Amazon perhaps starting to really lose a little bit of share as other companies, Costco, Walmart, and others, really lean increasingly into their digital shopping? Or was it simply what is likely to be, again, viewed in hindsight, a post opening surge in brick and mortar retail? And we see overall digital shopping slide back. So we wanted-- we want some points of confirmation before we start plowing into Amazon. Because we don't get that confirmation, the risk reward is that the shares could trade even lower.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, after this recent beat down, I mean, even today it's still lower, how do you feel about the chart?
BOB LANG: Yeah, so I'm looking for the stock to catch some support, maybe to down around just under $2,400 today and on Monday. So Monday, we did penetrate that $2,400 area. We did a little bit earlier today, and it's starting to bounce back right here. And again, this is an area where some buyers pick up the stock. We could get a little bit of a rally back. At least to-- maybe not fill that gap from last week's earnings, which is quite large, back up to about $27.50 or so, but at least maybe part of the way there. I'd like to see the stock stabilize a little bit here before we would consider entering any more on that position. But I think, again, stabilization of the stock is really important.
KATHERINE ROSS: Our next stock is Alphabet. And I'm wondering, would you suggest buying Alphabet here, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: It depends. So for the portfolio, at almost 3.5%, we are rather full. I think, for members that are underweight, the simple answer is yes. But the reason as to why should they do that, I think we need to discuss. We continue to see the overall shift in advertising spend towards digital. Clearly, Alphabet is going to be a big beneficiary of that.
They're even starting to look to monetize various other aspects of YouTube, and other video streaming products, which says that they're likely to increasingly gain advertising dollars, and they continue to ramp out in cloud, doing well there as well. So for those reasons, and the fact that the company, unlike a lot of others, they're not really impacted by rising raw materials or the wide array of inflationary pressures. We know that cost side should be relatively insulated. So I think this would be a great pickup for folks.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, can you give us an overview of what stands out to you right now in the chart?
BOB LANG: So what stands out to me is the resistance that's right now in about $2,500. Literally, a round number right there. We do have this stock having fallen after earnings, but it seems to be getting catching a little bit of support, around $2,200, or $2,230 right now. So I'd say that, if this level holds, we get a run up toward that $2,500 level, and see some stabilization up there. We got a chance for the stock to really move. And let's not forget, in July, the stock is going to be splitting 20 for one. Much like Amazon will be doing later on this month, it's also splitting 20 for one, which is one name we just talked about. But I think that 20 for 1 split for Alphabet, Google is going to put a little bit of an underlying bid underneath the stock. But nothing as much as the fundamentals are concerned. But certainly, more people are going to want to get into Google so they can get some more shares.
KATHERINE ROSS: Our next big tech name is Microsoft. Now, Jeffery's put out a note that basically urged investors to put aside FAANG and focus on Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, and Alphabet. Does that reaffirm your belief in Microsoft, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: I mean, it's always nice to have someone give some confirmation for what you're thinking. So let's talk about why we like Microsoft. Again, you could hearken back to some of the comments I just made about Alphabet in that, clearly, not a lot of input cost pressure that they're seeing, continuing to execute in Cloud, productivity and other software continue to grow. And we continue to see the PC sector doing well, particularly at the high end, gaming doing well as well. Again, circling back to our comments that we heard from intel.
So I continue to think that Microsoft is well positioned. The big question, though, that we're waiting on is, what is next with the Activision acquisition? And how does that really position the company for what's to come in the metaverse? We actually touched on that in our last member call. Again, this is one of those things that's a catalyst that's looming out there. We'll have to wait and be patient, but what we do know about the balance of the business continues to be favorable.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, has the chart of Microsoft showed that it can really weather a volatile market?
BOB LANG: Yeah. This stock has been rather volatile itself, and has come down around the $270 to $280 range on several occasions in 2022, and been holding pretty tight there. It's currently trading about $281, so anywhere between the $270, $280 level. I'd be looking for the stock to hold. It's a good high quality name. It's got good strong earnings, and again, as Chris mentioned just a moment ago about the Activision acquisition, that's going to be a game changer for Microsoft.
I know. I heard you groaning, Chris. But I think Activision is going to be a big acquisition for them down the road. It's going to be closing in there after the fiscal year ends in June 30th of this year. So I do like Microsoft here. This-- again, a good high quality name. And it holds this $270 to $280 range, back up the truck.
KATHERINE ROSS: OK, let's move on to Chipotle Mexican Grill before you guys make any more bad puns. It's managed to shake off inflation concerns so far. Chris, with what catalysts are on the horizon since Chipotle really managed to escape earnings unscathed?
CHRIS VERSACE: They did. They really did. I think, for them, it's going to simply, I would say, block and tackling, but what I really mean by that is doing what they have continued to do. We know that they've passed through some incremental price increases, but the key point is getting people into the stores, or at least ordering through the app or other online modalities. For that, it's not only going to be people no longer-- or I shouldn't say no longer, but not as much eating out at fine dining and/or casual restaurants like a Red Robin, or somebody like that, with sit down service increasingly leaning in to the quick service model like a Chipotle, but also combining that with what they have done extremely well over the last, I would say, 12 to 18 months, which is using the limited time menu offerings to draw people in.
I know that whenever a new one comes out, whether it's like the recent chicken twist that they had or the cauliflower rice that they did, or the smoked brisket, the lines are simply out the door, and the secret with that is, even in addition to the price increases that they're passing through, those are premium products. I think the more that they continue to do that, the more they will continue to outperform.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, what could send the stock back to $1,600?
BOB LANG: Boy, I was a little distracted there. Chris got me pretty hungry, talking about Chipotle's menu there. So Chipotle's chart. So again, it had a strong move post earnings, and it's come back to Earth again. And this is another one of those high growth names that is not going to go unpunished in a bear market. So the stock has fallen down to roughly about $1,400. That seems to be a level that I think is going to hold its hold, it's held on several occasions, currently about $1,417 right now.
So this morning, it did touch that $1,400 level. And I think if we can, again, hold that level, bounce off of the $1,400, and make a run towards that 20 day moving average, which comes in at about $1,515 to $1,520. I'd like to see a run up to there, make a high or a low on the chart, and then make a run towards that 200 day moving average. That comes and all the way up to $1,685. So I like Chipotle stock, if it gets a nice hold here.
KATHERINE ROSS: Cisco is next. Chris, you're waiting on the earnings report for this name, but what do you expect to hear based off of other reports?
CHRIS VERSACE: So I think it's going to be a mixed message, and I think it's going to pretty much keep our 2 rating intact. What I mean by mixed message is, I think we're going to hear positive commentary about the revenue drivers over the coming months. The continued build out, as we talked about earlier, cloud data center, the increasing need for servers, and the like. The issue, though, is going to be on the cost side.
I think that they are going to see some of the pains that we've been talking about of late about supply chain woes spinning out of China's lockdown. So for me, the key here is going to be getting through the earnings, letting that type of guidance be shared and digested by the shares. And at that point, then I think we can contemplate perhaps revisiting the rating, and perhaps adding on the position size.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, do you agree with that? Is that what it would take for you guys to get off the sidelines?
BOB LANG: Yeah. The stock really traded in a narrow range for the last part of January, up until about early part of April, and then it fell hard like a lot of these high tech names have done this past month or so. NASDAQ was down almost 20% in April, so this stock is starting to recover just above the $50 mark. I'd like to see it goes sideways a little bit, consolidate, stop the selling, stop the bleeding here, and then make a run towards that 50 day moving average. Let's call it about $53.65 to $53.75 right now.
Make a run up there, and then make a higher low on the chart. They do have earnings coming out, I believe, in a week or 2. And so, we'll hear a little bit more about what their quarter was all about. I do like the stock longer term. Again, this is a name that-- good high quality name that people are going to gravitate to when they look for stocks to become more uses of funds, rather than a source.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's go to Mastercard next. Putting aside the long term thesis, an environment where consumers are worried about a recession on top of interest rates, how reliable is this stock, Chris?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think it's extremely reliable. Even if folks want to spend cash rather than getting further into debt, that means we're going to see a shift towards the use of debit cards. But again, as we've said before, whether you swipe a credit card, swipe a debit card, or even pay through mobile payments that could tap your credit or debit card, those are all transactions that process across Mastercard. So from that perspective, we think the stock is fairly insulated in the near term. Longer term, you're correct, Katherine. There is that overall continued growth away from cash and check towards, again, any one of those 3 modalities that I just mentioned, which are all good for Mastercard.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, this stock is bouncing up towards its 52 week high. Can it maintain that momentum?
BOB LANG: Yeah, absolutely. And I think we talked about this in the last call. The stock's been in a range between $300 and $400, literally right in the middle of that range right now. $356 to $358. It made a run last week after earnings came out, and pulled back a little bit, filled that gap, which we often see happen. And I think the stock, again, it's just kind of consolidating. It can't break below $340. It can't break above $380, so we're right in the middle of that range right now. So hopefully, we can get a run back up to past $380, and we get to make a run to the old highs around $400.
KATHERINE ROSS: Morgan Stanley's up next. Now, I know the Twitter deal bouyed your optimism on this name, Chris, but what do you need to see from the deal's market to know that Twitter wasn't just a blip on the radar?
CHRIS VERSACE: So the great thing about the M&A market is, we tend to get data on the number of transactions, the size of transactions. A little bit on a lag basis, so we should start getting some of that for the month of April fairly soon. But we also want to keep tabs on the IPO filings, and as people can understand, in the current market environment, there aren't exactly a lot of companies that are bringing their IPO transactions.
Again, understandable, but we do want to see filings continue to rack up. We do want to see private equity deals getting done, which again, points to longer term IPO prospects, as well as many fees as well. So those are some of the things that we want to look for to really signal that we're going to see an uptrend in Morgan Stanley's investment banking and advisory business.
KATHERINE ROSS: Bob, this name is near a 52 week low, so what does the chart tell you?
BOB LANG: Yeah, so the stock has bounced off the $80 level a couple of different times for the past month or so. And again, it's having a nice day today, follow through day from yesterday. Certainly not out of the woods, but I like the fact that it's above the 20 day moving average. It bounced above there today, and it's holding nice and firm. Next up, 50 day moving average, just about $86 or $87.50. We get above that level. We're going to get into the Cloud, which is what could be a positive move for the stock. So I'm pretty positive on Morgan Stanley here, even if it gets extended a little bit more, maybe up towards 90, pulls back a little bit, and then makes a higher low on the chart. I do like Morgan Stanley.
KATHERINE ROSS: One name we discussed yesterday was Nucor. Chris, you noted that you're waiting to hit the buy button, but what do you need to see from the stock after we get through this week?
CHRIS VERSACE: Well, I think what we're going to want, Katherine, is a better sense of what the Fed is going to do, what they see in terms of the economic pressures that are out there, how quickly they're going to raise interest rates. So all of that. What we learned this afternoon could either give us some hope, or it could push Nucor shares down even further if we see new Nucor shares retreat. Obviously, we're going to want to reassess quickly steel prices, but remember, too, that what really separates Nucor from a number of different positions that are economically sensitive is the benefit to be had from infrastructure spending.
We've already heard from Steel Dynamics, United Rentals, and others that non-residential construction is accelerating. Some of it is seasonal, but the prospects for picking up through the balance of the year because of that infrastructure spending are quite high. So that is what keeps us a little bullish on Nucor past the, let's say, short term, more so than medium and longer term. So we just need to get through I think the next couple of days on Nucor, and we'll have a better sense of if we're buying near-term or not.
KATHERINE ROSS: And, Bob, yesterday you said that you'd be a buyer based on the technicals, correct?
BOB LANG: Yeah, I like Nucor here, pulled back to the 50 day moving average. We talked about that a couple of weeks ago, when we cut our position quite sharply. We only have less than a 1% position in the name right now, so we're stocking and waiting for it to give us another signal for a buy entry which is almost here right now. 50 day moving average has been a great spot for the stock to hold and bounce off of, so let's see if we get that hold here around this $150, $148 to $152 level.
KATHERINE ROSS: Moving on to Deere. Let's say, Chris, we start to see an economic slowdown. How would you then approach Deere?
CHRIS VERSACE: I don't think it would really change because the supply demand dynamics associated with commodity prices-- again, corn, wheat, and ag-- those are very different drivers. More so weather, plantings, harvests, that sort of thing. And with Russia now saying that, hey, we're going to get even more stringent and cutting off certain raw materials, and the war continuing in Ukraine, I think we're going to continue to see added pressure on the supplies of commodities, and therefore, commodity prices.
But I would also say that, in terms of supporting our thesis, comments out earlier this week from AGCO, Titan International, which is a key supplier for wheels and tires to Deere, as well as Valmont Industries-- all of those have very bullish commentary, regarding the ag market. So whether it's near-term or long term, our conviction in Deere remains high.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, what does the chart tell you about this name?
BOB LANG: 100 day moving average right here. It's been a really strong area of support for the stock for years. And we had a strong move up. Towards the end of April, it pulled back sharply for about 3 or 4 days, but right to that 100 day moving average, so this is a good spot to add some more shares.
KATHERINE ROSS: Union Pacific is up next. Chris, can you explain how Union Pacific is an inflation hedge for the portfolio?
CHRIS VERSACE: I don't think I can, Katherine. I'm not really sure I would characterize it as an inflation hedge for the portfolio. If anything, I would say it's one of the more economically sensitive names inside the portfolio, and it's also one that we could face some additional pressures, not just the supply chain issues that we're seeing in China and the expected port congestion that is likely to ensue as that economy reopens.
But remember-- and I think we talked about this on the last member call-- the port of Los Angeles and the other second port right there that forms a very large complex, where Union Pacific has one of its key hubs, there is a contract renegotiation that's upcoming in June. So to me, there's a couple of headwinds that we have to face to get through Union Pacific. What would we be looking for to get a little more positive on the name is going to be closely monitoring that weekly rail traffic that we tend to get. I expect it's going to get a little weaker before it gets better, but as it firms, that could be the sign that we look forward as you get a little more bullish on UNP.
KATHERINE ROSS: Chris, would you mind-- in the weekly roundup, that's where I read this, that you said, as part of the investment thesis, that it's a hedge against potential inflation. Do you mind just explaining what you meant by that then?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think that's probably arguably like a dated comment. I think that, if we were to look at it conceptually, the notion is the way that they carry freight is not subject to fuel costs and fuel pricing inflation. That I think is probably some of what it was referring to, but I think that's something that we need to update.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Bob, if the stock keeps heading towards its 52 week high, would you take some off the table?
BOB LANG: Yeah. So UNP came right back down and touched that 200 day moving average, and it's flirting with that for the best 7, 8 trading sessions. So we'll see how it reacts and responds over here. This has been a good area for support of UNP over the past several years. So we'll see if this holds up right here. It's calling at about $232 to $235 area right now. Is trading around $234 right now. So this area holds up, and we get a move up towards that 100 day moving average. It's called about $245. I'd like to see the stock move up a little bit more, and I think there's some buyers who are going to support it.
KATHERINE ROSS: UPS has hit a bit of a speed bump here. In fact, earlier this week, it hit a 52 week low. So Bob, are you worried about this holding?
BOB LANG: No, I'm not too worried about it right now. UPS is a strong, high quality name. It came back down to the October lows. Let's call it about $175 to $178 recently. And this is an area where the stock really took off to the upside, back in October, November. It ran a huge run. And as you recall, when we had the name, we did take some money off the table there, off of that big huge run. And it came back down, and it's just been bouncing around between $175 to $230 on the high side for right now. So I think at this point in time, if you got the stock, just hold it. If you don't have enough shares of it, add some more right here at the October lows.
KATHERINE ROSS: And Chris, from a fundamental perspective, what are you watching with this name?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think the question you're asking, Katherine-- sorry, we have to go back to the land of bad puns is whether UPS can still deliver. And I think that really goes back to my comment earlier about what we're watching for Amazon, which is, of course, an overall proxy for digital shopping. We want to get further away from the reopening, and see if we see more normalized trends between brick and mortar shopping and digital shopping emerge.
I continue to think the right way us contemplate UPS is what we call the second derivative for digital shopping, and my suspicion is that, as we go through the balance of the year, we will see digital shopping resume that growth trajectory. We also have to be mindful of fuel costs, as well as competition that they might be seeing from others, including Amazon.
But at the same time, we are seeing Costco, Walmart, and almost every other retailer continue to lean increasingly into digital shopping, meeting the customer where they want to be. So I think we'll have a chance to revisit UPS, most likely as we get closer to the all important back to school shopping season, Prime Day, which again, is going to fall in July, really setting us up for what should be a stronger second half of the year for that.
KATHERINE ROSS: Let's move on to United Rentals. Bob, why has this name trended down recently?
BOB LANG: Yeah, so the stock had a nice move up, right after we bought the name. It pulled back down. It's been pretty volatile, but it's in between this range of about, let's call 300 to about 370 now, to the high side, all time high. Of course, quite a bit further up at about $410, $415. So we think that any time the stock pulls down around $300 to $305, great opportunity to buy. We're at 308 right now, so it's almost right there. This stock has been a good performer over the past couple of months. And again, here we are in an environment where high growth names are being shunned. They're being sold. But United Rentals put up a high quality quarter and raised guidance when they reported their earnings recently. So I think that any pullback here on a high quality name like United Rentals is a great opportunity to add some more shares.
KATHERINE ROSS: Chris, but should members be concerned about the impact that this current environment could have?
CHRIS VERSACE: I think the current environment, if we're defining it as concerns over the speed of the overall economy, I think that's one of the things that is weighed clearly on the shares of United Rentals. But when we, again, circle back, look at the data, the ABI Billings index, moving up very nicely. That's a leading indicator. Commentary around non-residential construction. In order to do that, you need the type of equipment that United Rentals presents. We take a look at what Caterpillar, Terex had to say. All very supportive. I think Bob is 100% correct on that, and it's a strategy that we've been employing, which is, let the stock come in, slowly build out the position size, and I think it's something that we're going to continue to do.
KATHERINE ROSS: And since it is May 4th, which means that it is Star Wars Day, we're going to end with Disney. Bob, what should members do at Disney here?
BOB LANG: Disney has a hold right here. I don't think you should be-- certainly shouldn't be selling the stock right here. They have earnings coming out in about a week, so we're going to hear a little bit more about their parks data and what their movie and TV lineup is going to be all about. But the stock has fallen quite sharply, and frankly, it's been disappointing for all of us, as Disney shareholders. But I think, to be perfectly honest, this stock has not been at this level for several years. And I think that this is a huge opportunity. Is it going to go back to the all time highs next week? Of course not. But I do think that over a long period of time-- our time horizon is what 12, 18, 24 months? I think over a long period of time, this is a high quality brand that stock is going to rebound, and we'll be happy to own it when it does.
KATHERINE ROSS: Chris, members have questioned Disney's choice to speak out against Florida's legislation, and the backlash that it received. Has that changed your thesis on this name?
CHRIS VERSACE: It hasn't yet. I mean, I think we've got to see what the follow through on all of this is. We've seen things start to happen, but I forget who said it, but it's not over until it's over, Katherine. And that's-- we need to see what the real fallout is, what the impact on Disney's cost structure is going to be. I agree with Bob, that all the indicators that we've gotten from park attendance to higher ticket sales, or higher ticket prices at the parks, as incremental spending on Disney Plus, and some traction there-- I think all of those are good for the story. But the overhang, you nailed it. Until we get some clarity on this, I think the shares are going to be range bound. And I think Bob's right. The shares should be rated a hold here, more likely to 2 than a 1, until that uncertainty is removed.
KATHERINE ROSS: And that, folks, is a wrap on our May monthly call. We know that this is a bearish market environment, and that, therefore, causes a lot of anxiety. So please continue to send your questions to Katherine.Ross@thestreet.com, and we'll see you tomorrow. Thank you for joining us today.