CHRIS VERSACE: Good morning, Action Alerts Plus members. It's Monday, August 22. Here's what I'm watching as we start what's usually a rather quiet last two weeks of the summer. We've got no companies reporting today and no major economic data points.

However, over the weekend, despite all the progress that we've heard about supply chains, over the last couple of weeks, as companies have reported, we had some harsh reminders that supply chain issues are continuing to persist, thereby continuing to be a headwind for the global economy. What I'm talking about in particular are the drought concerns in China that's leading to industrial production power cuts, as well as a fresh port strike over in the UK.

As we're digesting this today, we're seeing markets continue the action they had on Friday. By that, I mean they are trading off. But it's going to be the coming days that we really want to focus in on, as we have a slew of data coming, ahead of Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday.

In particular, we've got the flash August PMI data over the next two days. That's going to really reignite the conversation over the speed of the global economy, as well as tell us whether inflation prices have peaked, or if they're remaining stubbornly persistent. Later in the week, we have the PCE price index.

This is important for a number of different reasons, but we have to remember that this is one of the Fed's preferred metrics when it comes to gauging inflation. Odds are, it's going to show that inflation remains, I'm afraid, persistently stubborn. All of this sets up for Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday, like I just mentioned.

A lot of people are expecting him to comment on the next steps for monetary policy. Our view is somewhat different. We have to recognize that we've got three and a half weeks of economic data to come after Fed Chair Powell speaks.

We suspect he's more likely going to sidestep any direct questions about monetary policy and the September Fed meeting, preferring to let the Fed, as we will, digest all of the economic data coming. More than likely, this means the next couple of days are going to remain volatile, with the markets trading day to day, based on what we learn each morning.

What are we going to do? We will continue to check the Atlanta Fed GDP, which has already shown GDP expectations for the current quarter softening. We'll also continue to keep close tabs on the CME Fed Watch tool, which, coming into this week, looked like it was pretty much going to be a 50-basis-point move by the Fed, come September.

We will continue to update our investment mosaic, as we like to say, taking all of this data in. But from a portfolio perspective, we're going to remain on a prudent path. That means we're not going to make any bold moves. We will continue to look for opportunities, similar to what we did last week with Vulcan Materials.

But I think in the near term, more likely than not, we're going to be inclined to look for opportunities in existing, defensive, dividend-paying companies. And with that said, there are two companies that I'm really watching today. The first is Amazon.

Over the weekend, we learned that Amazon was tossing its hat into the ring for Signify Health. This is an interesting move, especially given the recent acquisition that was announced for one medical sign. Both of these would really push Amazon increasingly into the health care market, which is a huge opportunity, and in our view, is one that needs to be disrupted. We do like a number of things that Amazon brings to the table in tackling health care, everything from the logistics tied to Prime, but also Amazon Web Services.

And again, we really like it. It's a nice long-term fourth leg to the Amazon stool. However, it is, as I just kind of indicated, going to take some time. In the near term, what does this mean? It means that digital shopping and Amazon Web Services will continue to be the primary driver for Amazon, a company that we continue to like and one that we're hopefully going to nibble further on before the all-important holiday shopping season is right in front of us.

The second company that we're watching today is Deere. Last week, the company reported July quarter results, and it was given a free pass. The stock really didn't degrade very much, given what was considered by some to be mixed quarterly earnings.

What was the reason for that? A couple-- one, a very robust order book that extends into next year; two, pricing that is continuing to stave off the impact of inflation and will do more in the coming quarters; three, rising production levels at Deere, which points to some of the comments we made earlier about improving supply chains. What did we see as a result?

Almost across the board, people on Wall Street had raised their price targets for the company. We actually took the other route. We took our street-high Wall Street price target of 4.50, trimmed it down to 4.25. But we continue to like the story in the coming quarters.

One other note on that is-- I know we'll get questions. People will say, well, where would you buy Deere up to? We would be aggressively buying Deere, up to the 380, 385 level. At that point, we've got a little over 10% to our new 425 price target. That's a wrap for today's Daily Rundown. We'll be back with you tomorrow.