BOB LANG: Good morning, Action Alerts PLUS subscribers. It's September 8, 2022. It's time for our rundown. We have a lot to cover, so let's get to it today.
So yesterday, we had a solid rally on pretty good breadth. But really, was it just a relief rally from an oversold reading? I think it really is. And with those conditions that we have right now, we are still oversold on the McClellan oscillator right now, still ticking at minus 200. Yesterday, it was ticking in at around minus 370 to minus 400, historic lows on that oscillator.
And it seems like a pretty strong oversold rally was due. Conditions that we had not seen in several months. So it really made sense that we would get a nice rally towards the middle of the week off of those really strong, deep oversold readings.
We do see the 3,900 level as some good support here. And it has been for the past few days. But if it fails there, we do have some targets down below and actually, including those June lows, which come in at about 3,640, to 3,637 or so. If those don't hold, we do have some much lower targets even in pre-COVID highs. And that comes in at about 3,393. So it's something to be watchful of and be waiting for in case those lows in June don't hold.
We have seen since April these big moves up reverse the next day or tow. Is that going to happen this time around? Well, time will tell. We'll have to see. But certainly, those days since April, about eight or nine of them with the markets reversing course the following day or two-- crushed the hopes of the bulls that a rally was going to ensue. And of course, those are mostly from levels that are much higher than we are at right now.
And again, we have to be mindful of that sort of behavior could happen again. These are characteristics and behaviors of a bear market. Volatility is up today. It's come down a little bit off of the highs from earlier this morning, indicating a move towards grabbing protection as well in this market.
There's been a lack of concern, more complacency in the markets recently, even as the markets have come down since the middle part of August. They're trying to break a three-week losing streak, of course. And given that we have two days to the end of the week, we've got a full day tomorrow and about a half a day left today, it's going to be a bit of a challenge to see the bulls rack up a win for the first time in about a month.
Chair Powell was taking questions today. And people are paying attention to that. He started talking about 20 minutes before the stock market opened, which opened rather weak today. It may give us some clues on monetary policy for the coming days and weeks. And of course, we do have another Fed meeting coming up in about two weeks.
Speaking of the Fed meeting, Fed funds futures now seeing about an 82% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in two weeks-- that's on the 21st of September-- and a strong chance of 4% on the funds rate in December. So that would be a total of about 175 basis points from where we're currently at right now.
How does that look on the Fed funds calendar? So if we get 75 in two weeks in September, that brings our funds rate up to 3%. We could see a 50 basis point rate hike in November, and then another 50 basis point rate hike in December, which would bring us up to about 4%.
We're certainly going to see the Fed funds futures move quite significantly next week. We do have CPI and PPI numbers coming out. So we did see the markets move quite significantly after watching July's CPI number, which came in lower than expected.
As far as the Fed is concerned, again, we are hearing Powell today. Earlier this week, we did hear from some other Fed governors. We have two more Fed speakers tomorrow. They've been giving us a lot of lip service lately. And we want to see if they can match that lip service with some action, some bold action. Again, it remains to be seen, but we think that they're on the right course here.
The eurozone had their meeting today. They raised interest rates by 75 basis points. And it's putting a little bit of pressure on the dollar, a little bit of pressure so far. We might see a little bit more of that pressure coming out in the coming days and weeks. They raised their interest rate to 1.25%. So they're certainly far behind where the Federal Reserve is right now, indicating however, more hikes are on the way.
That is going to be good news for the region. But of course, they're dealing with a much greater inflationary problem than we are in the United States or most other countries are around the world. So they do have a lot of work to do.
One of the names in our portfolio, McCormick and Company, came out and downgraded their earnings going up and for the rest of the year. They said that there's slowing sales and a little bit of a gloomy outlook. Stock is down a little bit today. We'll be watching this one closely and talking about it as well too, but we're not going to do anything here at this point in time. We're not going to panic.
Of course, last time earnings came out for McCormick, they cut their guidance, and the stock went down sharply and bounced back significantly. So we could see that happen once again.
ChargePoint, one of the names in our portfolio, is actually the biggest holding that we have in the "Action Alerts PLUS." It had a really strong day on Wednesday and is following through today. Good volume, positive price action turned up the indicators to bullish on the intermediate term charts. We still like the same. We're looking for an intermediate move up towards the 20-plus level in the coming weeks and in coming months.
And finally, Apple's event yesterday was very interesting. They didn't really announce any new products, rather just a refresh of their iPhone and their watch and maybe some satellite capabilities here. But I do believe they hinted at another meeting or another event coming out in December. So that will be a very interesting.
And I said, I said lastly, but actually, one more thing I'm going to mention to you. Yesterday we had the monthly call. And it was a fantastic meeting with Sarah Silverstein, Chris, and myself. So I encourage you guys all to take a look at that when you get a chance. The links should be out there.
And then finally, on Monday-- Monday, Chris and I are going to be recording our audio, talking about the markets and the economy, inflation, the trends, and that sort of stuff. So stay tuned for that. That'll be out hopefully, on either Monday or Tuesday. Have a great day everyone, and we'll see you tomorrow.