CHRIS VERSACE: Good morning, Action Alerts Plus members. It's Wednesday, October 5th. Stocks are giving back some of the gains registered over the last two days as the market oscillators have moved to slightly overbought from oversold, likely making the recent move in the market just the latest bear market rally.

The rash of Fed heads making the rounds yesterday didn't give any hint of a potential Fed pivot, and that is part of what's hitting stocks today, as well as giving both the dollar and treasury yields some lip. Now, we had a rash of data today, so let's tick it off. First, job creation, according to the ADP Employment Change report, was up in September versus August, a modest positive.

We also had the S&P Global US Services PMI come in, and it was revised slightly higher for September versus the Flesch Reading, but make no mistake, it was still in contraction territory, marking the third month in that area. Not exactly pointing to a robust economy for the services side of the domestic economy. When we dig into that report, there are some positives. New orders rebounded and are once again growing. Supply chain issues, however, remain in play, but we continue to see slower increases in input costs and output charges.

Remember, those might be slowing, but they're still increases, pointing to persistent inflation. Turning over to the ISM Services Index, it inched lower for a reading of 56.7 in September from 56.9 in August, but even though this continues to be in growth mode, the real takeaway for us was the rather modest decline in the prices component.

Per the report, areas such as food, electrical components, labor, chips, and transportation were all cited as areas of rising pressures, while fuel and steel were mentioned as declining during the month. Now, we're going to continue to watch all of those and what they mean for the portfolio, but the one that kind of caught our eye out of that report was the continued fall in steel prices, largely because it could spell for some margin improvement regarding our shares of Deere in the coming quarter.

Now, that backdrop from all the data that we heard also explains some of the comments we heard out of consumer product companies Helen of Troy and Hasbro early this morning. Both warned about inflation pressuring consumer budgets more than initially expected, and we see that playing right into our thesis on Costco shares. Now, stepping back and taking today's data in full, there's really little reason to think the Fed will pivot from its stated course, and in our view, we're seeing that reflected in the market today as it readjusts its thinking to that likelihood.

Now, for the portfolio, we're going to remain on the same path that we've been on, the cautious and prudent one, but just because we're being cautious doesn't mean we won't be opportunistic. Following the greater than expected production cut announced that, of OPEC Plus, we added to the portfolio's position in the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund, better known as XLE shares. Now, we continue to be concerned about supply issues on the oil front in the coming month, especially as the eurozone ban on Russian oil comes into play in early December.

Now, we're going to continue to look for fresh opportunities for the portfolio, and as the market gives back some of these gains of the last few days, we could have a new opportunity to share with members before too long. Finally, don't forget to tune into our October AAP members-only call that will be held live tomorrow, Thursday, at 12:00 PM ET. Thanks for joining us. We'll see you tomorrow.