Daily Rundown: June 1

CHRIS VERSACE: Good morning, Action Alerts Plus members. As we begin today's rundown, all eyes remain on Capitol Hill. As we know, the debt ceiling passed the House and now it moves to a Senate vote set for this weekend. All-in-all, good progress and the timing appears like it's going to clear the June 5th X date.

Earlier this week, as we learned of the finalized agreement, we shared the final agreement would likely remove the overhang on a few of our portfolio names, including Lockheed Martin and Elevance Health. As the deal looks increasingly likely, that removal of the overhang looks increasingly likely as well. And in my opinion, the shares of both Lockheed Martin and Elevance remain at favorable share price levels for you to go ahead and add them.

And also as we expected, the market is indeed shifting back to focus on fundamentals, the economy, inflation, and yes, monetary policy. Today, as I've been writing with you, we have a full plate of data that will speak to all of that, including May job and wage data from ADP, twin looks at the manufacturing economy from S&P Global and ISM, the latest construction spending data, and some other items as well.

Now so far, we have the ADP data in hand and it showed a far greater number of jobs created in May than were expected. It also showed that wage inflation remains hot and at elevated levels. As I see it, the Fed is going to view that ADP data as confirming that, one, the economy without a doubt remains on firm footing, but two, the tight labor market remains in place. On its own, the ADP report is likely to tip June rate hike expectations back towards another 25-basis point.

But let's remember, we have several other pieces of data coming not only today, but later this week as well. That includes twin looks, like I said, at May manufacturing activity later today, as well as the May employment report that will be out tomorrow. When we get today's manufacturing data, we'll be thinking about the relationship to S&P 500 revenue and earnings as we digest not only the headline data, but the new order and inflation data as well. Be sure to check your email later today as I break down the data for you and its implications.

Now, let's move over to United Rentals. The company held its Annual Investor Day yesterday. And unsurprisingly, the company was very upbeat about its multi-year prospects given infrastructure spending. How upbeat was United Rentals? Well, let's put it this way, so much so that they introduced 2028 revenue target of around $20 billion.

Now, you know I like to give context when we throw out these numbers. And in this case, United Rentals posted $11.6 billion in 2022. So again, it sees itself going from $11.6 billion last year to $20 billion in 2028. Simply put, that is a massive increase, and one that should deliver really nice margin expansion and earnings leverage over the coming years, as well as driving the shares of United Rentals higher.

Also at this event, United reiterated its 2023 guidance from $13.7 to $14.2 billion in revenue. Again, up very nicely year-over-year as the ramp in infrastructure spending continues. As we see it, United Rentals shares remain simply a great play on infrastructure spending. And the current share price also offers a great entry point for AAP members.

Now, let's step back a little bit and just think about United's comments. They're also positive, as well as bolstering the case for our shares in Vulcan Materials as well. That will do it for this edition of the rundown. I will be taking some time away, but we have some very special videos planned.

For example, tomorrow you'll be joined by the Streets editor in chief, Sarah Silverstein, and AAP team member Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle. I, however, look forward to talking with you again when I'm back from vacation. Thanks for watching, and have a great day.