J.D. DURKIN: A very good Friday morning, subscribers, one and all. The one and only, Helene Meisler joins me now for her take on the markets and a look at some of the charts that all of you have been eagerly asking the most about. Helene, good morning. Thank you for taking some time for us today.

HELENE MEISLER: Good morning. Thanks for having me.

J.D. DURKIN: Of course. So seasonality and the potential for major swings on low volume-- it's been a major point of focus for Chris Versace as we head into the final weeks of the summer. What stood out to you this past week, I wonder?

HELENE MEISLER: Well, first of all, I hate that excuse, seasonality. And I hate the excuse of low volume. Let me start with that NASDAQ volume has actually been higher this week than it's been in the last month and change. And we tend to rally on low volume and tend to sell off on higher volume. That is just a fact of market life.

And so let's just get rid of that notion that markets rally on higher volume and they go down on lower volume. That just doesn't happen. And, yes, low volume can tend to push stocks around more, but it's an excuse. The reality is we got overbought in the middle of July. Stocks had started to make lower highs. And we're in the midst of a decline.

J.D. DURKIN: Over on Real Money, you noted a bit of a shift in sentiment this week. Do you think there's worry that's beginning to bubble up to take hold on Wall Street? What do you think people should know?

HELENE MEISLER: Finally, we've gotten a little more than complacent. We've gotten almost too giddy by the end of July. And now I would say, we backed off too complacent, and now we're sort of-- the worry is starting to creep in. I can give you some statistics.

Just for example, you've had a lot of the survey data, where you've seen the bulls back off 10 or 15 points. But you've not yet seen the Bears really creep up. They're just sort of up one or two points. So a lot of the bulls have gone into that correction camp or the neutral camp. And generally speaking, I always find that people rarely go from bull to bear or bear to bull. They usually spend a little time on the fence in the middle of it all.

And I liken it to, you've got two neighbors. You've got a fence between them. One neighbor is having cocktails and having a great time. Caught in a downdraft. Called in the bears. The bulls are on the other side of the fence. They're looking at the bears having a great time.

They sort of mosey over to the fence. They're looking over. They're looking over. Eventually, they decide to jump the fence and join the bears in their party. The same thing happens the other way. So I think that's sort of where we are is that the bulls are sort of moseyed over to the fence.

J.D. DURKIN: I love that analogy. Cocktails for all. Everyone wants to join in on the fun. Helene, you recently took a look over at semiconductors, a very important space at a very important time. What happened to all of the investor love that these stocks have been kind of accustomed to? And what do you think might be coming next?

HELENE MEISLER: Yeah, back of the end of May when Nvidia had its earnings, and then in June, the SOX, the Semiconductor Index went on to a minor higher high. Basically, if you take a look back, almost the entire period of June, July, and now into August, the semis have gone nowhere despite all the love. I think you had a lot of late comers, and I think you've had a lot of early buyers selling to the late comers.

And we haven't quite gotten to that level where I would say people are concerned about the semis. But they're certainly been selling them for the last few months. I think if you can get another downdraft sometime in the next few weeks on the semis, you might get people saying, oh, no. I've had enough. And then we probably have enough to start buying them again.

J.D. DURKIN: I do want to ask you about the energy sector, Helene. I know it's something you've been keeping a close eye on. Of course, as a reminder, the club overall maintains a position in the energy select sector spider. But what kind of patterns have you seen emerging there that you think is important for members to pay close attention to as well?

HELENE MEISLER: Well, I really warmed up to the energy sector back in June. I think oil was pushing against $67, and everybody was starting to get quite concerned that oil was going to break down. And you know, again, it was the opposite of semiconductors. There was a lot of hate for oil. Oh, no, you can't own energy. What if oil crude oil breaks $67.

And in the meantime, the stocks were making higher lows. But now, I think too many people have moved to that side of the boat. And now, they all like energy again. And so I think energy is due to have a correction again.

J.D. DURKIN: All right, so while I have you, and it is such a treat to be able to sit down with you and I think bring your much needed context and perspective to our members, I would love to get your take on a few of the club's recent holdings. So let's start with your thoughts on the club's newest position, which is McDonald's, a stock that is up 6.7 or so percent year to date. But I'd love to get the sense on what you're seeing in the technicals.

HELENE MEISLER: OK, first of all, breaking that blue line, not good. It's a line that dates back to October, so call it a one-year line. And it's an uptrend that's been broken. But not only is it an uptrend that's been broken, take a look at that rally this summer. It barely made a higher high from the spring rally.

And so what you got really, is similar to what I described in the semiconductor. You've got distribution. You've got people selling, not buying. I think it is more likely than not it comes down to kind of the $275, $280 area. You'll get a bounce. If that bounce is kind of pathetic, then I think your next trip down is to $270-ish, where there's a lot more support.

Let me also note, I saw that there was a question about the 200-day moving average on McDonald's. And 200 trading days ago was October, around mid-October, early to mid-October. And so what we look for on a moving average line is, what direction is the moving average line going. So if I'm currently trading at 270, and the lows back then were 100 points ago, no big deal. The 200-day moving average line is just going to keep rising. And therefore, breaking it isn't as big a deal because it's still rising.

The problem occurs when it starts to flatten out and then roll over. So don't think you have a problem with McDonald's 200-day moving average line until a few months out in time, possibly, when you've dropped that big October rally, and then you get into that whole sideways move from the latter part of the year to the early part of the year. And that's when you really have to start paying attention, because if the price of McDonald's starts trading under the price that you're dropping from 200 days ago, the 200-day moving average line is going to roll over. And that, to me, is the negative sign, like a longer-term negative sign.

J.D. DURKIN: And you talked about how it was trading back in the spring and May. We saw the high go to around $297, $298. As we're having this conversation, we are seeing it at about the $282 level. So I do appreciate the context specifically on that member question with regards to the 200-day moving average.

Let me get your take on a name that is up 1.8% on the year. This is ticker symbol QCOM. That's of course, Qualcomm. What are your thoughts there on that recent addition, Helene?

HELENE MEISLER: So we just talked about the semiconductor stocks. And you can see here, you had what I'd term the lovefest. And then it had a nice rally, and now it's come down quite hard. As I said, I think if you, over the course of the next few weeks, you could get more capitulatory selling in the socks. And obviously, Qualcomm is a member of that index. And therefore, I think something anywhere, let's call it down to the $100, $105 area, I think it starts to get a little interesting. You have some pretty good support down there. And again, if on an intermediate-term basis, we're oversold when we get down there, it makes it a decent buy.

J.D. DURKIN: And, Helena, one thing. I wonder how closely do you follow things like the CHIPS Act that passed obviously, last year? I think we are just past the one-year point or so. It's something Chris Versace talks a lot about in terms of-- not that we get into the politics of it, but it is conceived to be a major bipartisan Federal government investment, specifically in semiconductor assembly, manufacturing, testing. How big a piece is that piece of legislation on your radar as you approach semiconductor stocks?

HELENE MEISLER: Not at all. Honestly, because--

J.D. DURKIN: All right.

HELENE MEISLER: --who doesn't know? Who doesn't know? At some point, it gets priced in. And at this point, I would feel everybody sort of knows what-- it's a year into it. There's no more anticipation. So I don't think that that's as big a deal right now as it might have been a year ago.

J.D. DURKIN: Absolutely. I had a sneaking suspicion you'd have a good answer to that. And my suspicions were proved correct. So thank you for them. Helene, it is wonderful to have you. I hope we could do this far more often. Thanks a lot for taking the time. Happy Friday to you, my friend, and have a great weekend.

HELENE MEISLER: Thanks. Have a great weekend.

J.D. DURKIN: Absolutely. We love when Helene brings the charts. It all makes us smarter investors together. Folks, thank you for watching. Chris Versace and I will be back on Monday to get ready for the next week. And don't forget. We will have Jackson Hole at the end of next week, something I'm sure Mr. Versace and I will be breaking down.

Until then, head to your inbox for Chris's full take on Applied Materials, Deere, and many more names. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.