CHRIS VERSACE: Good morning, Action Alerts PLUS members. I'll be attending a series of investor conferences over the next two weeks in Europe, bouncing between London, Helsinki, Frankfurt, Milan, and a few other spots. But don't worry, we'll still be bringing everything you need to know each trading day, including my own notes from the road based on my meetings of the day, as well as the usual commentary that we bring to you.

Let's use that as a jumping on point for today's rundown. Now, for a quick look at some of our big tech positions, let's revisit Apple's big event last week and the additions to our position in Qualcomm that we also made last week as well. Now, as we described in our notes following Apple's event, it was a good event.

But given the focus on trade in values, we would argue it was more geared toward driving upgrades of existing iPhone users and converting other smartphone users as well. Heading into the event, we expected a mini upgrade cycle to emerge, and we still think that is likely to happen.

So far, reports are once again showing long lead times, especially in China with some reports indicating the soonest folks will get their new devices is November. Now, we see that as typical Apple fare. Because they always tell us that the phones are stocking out and selling very strong.

But we will continue to look for confirmation of the seasonal smartphone pattern that it is playing out, as well as commentary from wireless carriers around the globe that demand is favorable. Now, as mentioned, let's touch on our shares of Qualcomm, which again we added to last week. We did that following the extended agreement with Apple that now runs through 2026.

Previously, it was expected to end with the current new iPhone cycle. But the new agreement between the two companies means greater smartphone volumes for Qualcomm in 2024, 2025, and 2026. We have been getting some questions about this new Huawei model that's been getting more than its fair amount of attention.

Let's just think about this and what it may mean for Qualcomm. Huawei is responsible for about 40 to 42 million chipsets from Qualcomm in 2023. By comparison, however, Apple shipped 225 million smartphones in 2022. The way we see it, the extension of the relationship with Apple should more than offset any share loss inside of Huawei.

Now, switching gears, let's take a look at the week ahead and a few potential catalysts that are on our radar. First, let's of course, start with the big one, the Fed. Wednesday, the Fed will conclude its latest policy meeting. The wide consensus is it will leave rates unchanged.

No big surprise. Again, this is the expected consensus. The Fed, however, will also be updating its economic projections, and they will have to no doubt revise their forecast higher based on all the data that we've been seeing. The question, though, is when it does that, what does it do with its Fed funds rate forecast?

The growing view is it may signal at least one more hike is possible in 2023, subject, of course, to what the oncoming data tells us. The market probably won't like that realization come Wednesday. Now, in our opening comments this morning, however, we shared a new poll that suggests the Fed could do as many as two rate hikes before the end of 2023.

If the updated dot plot shows that, the market really won't like that. And it's reason for us heading into that meeting to keep our inverse ETFs in play. Now, we do think that the Fed and Fed Chair Powell will be a bit more hawkish leaning coming out of that meeting. Again, no surprise given the data that what we've seen. But in our view, the jury is still out for another rate hike.

We simply have too much data between now and the Fed's November meeting. And what it tells us is what we will want to when it comes to what's ahead for Fed policy. Moving on to now, late this week, we have the September flash PMI data. And of course, we'll be digging into that to gauge the speed of the economy, what's the latest on inflation pressures, and it'll also give us an early peek at September job creation.

We also have some housing data, which we will be watching given the shares of builder firstsource in the bullpen. And I would suggest, please, be sure to read our opening comments from this morning, where we went into more detail on the housing market and what we'll be watching. On a programming note, well, I'm abroad over the next two weeks. Keep an eye out for some special daily rundowns while I'm away. And be sure to check your alerts, which will spell out what we're watching and what you need to know about the week's latest news. Thanks for watching.